Indirect long-term effects

accidental harm | broad vs. narrow interventions | cluelessness | existential risk factor | forecasting | naive vs. sophisticated consequentialism| forecastingspillover effects

When evaluating the outcome of an action, a distinction can be made between the action’s direct and indirect effects. Although the boundary between these two categories is often imprecise, direct effects are those effects that are relatively obvious and intended. Indirect effects, in turn, are effects whichthat are either non-obvious (i.e., it is difficult to determine whether or to what extent they followsfollow from the relevant actions), unintended, or both.

Many kinds of indirect effects have received attention within the effective altruism community, including the following:

• negative side-effects of (disseminating)disseminating true information
• , negative-side effects of rule-breaking
• , and replaceability effects

Further reading

Wiblin, Robert (2016) Making sense of long-term indirect effects, Effective Altruism, August 7.