# Manifold Markets

I read the New York Times article and I am a long time fan of prediction markets. But the article raised the question of wealthy people distorting predictions in order to get the outcomes they desire.

Does anyone have any remedies for this challenge?

Note that you can embed Manifold Markets in foum posts and wiki entries!

A video tutorial is also available[1].

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'[1]2]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Here's an example market[1]2]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,[2]3] and over$340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[3]4]

1. ^

Manifold Markets Tutorial, Victoria Brook (2022)

2. ^
3. ^

Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.

4. ^

Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'[1]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Here's an example market;market[1]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,[1]2] and over$340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[2]3]

1. ^
2. ^

Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.

3. ^

Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

Below, we've spent $10M$10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 yesYES shares. If the market resolves yes, we'll net back $53M$53 for our $10M$10 investment:

Manifold Marketsis a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation.

## Tutorial

Mana (M$) is the currency of Manifold. Users start with M$500 for free. M$can be redeemed as a play-money charitable donation at M$100:$1 or purchased at the same exchange rate Markets are the unit of prediction on Manifold. Creating a market. costs M$50, which is then used as a liquidity pool to allow users to trade on the market.

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Example:

Here's an example market; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

Below, we've spent $10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 yes shares. If the market resolves yes, we'll net back$53 for our \$10 investment:

We can also click on the title to see more information, make larger bets, and sell our shares (at their current price as determined by the market's aggregate bet):