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Metaculus

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Leo v1.11.0Jun 10th 2022 (+16) 1

Apply for a job.

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Pablo v1.10.0Apr 22nd 2022 (+178/-94) 2

Aguirre, Anthony ~~(2016)~~ ~~Predicting the future (of life)~~, ~~Future of Life Institute~~~~, January 24.~~

~~Aguirre, Anthony~~ (2021) A primer on the Metaculus scoring rule, Medium, February 27.

dan (2020) A preliminary look at Metaculus and expert forecasts, Metaculus, June 2.

Hobbhahn, Marius (2022) How good were our AI timeline predictions so far?, Metaculus, April 10.

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Leo v1.9.0Jan 13th 2022 (+11/-37) 1

Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max ~~Wainwright (Mann 2016; Shelton 2016).~~Wainwright.^[1]^[2]

Leo v1.8.0Jan 13th 2022 (+129/-118) 1

Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright (Mann 2016; Shelton 2016).^[1]^[2]

BibliographyFurther reading

External links

Metaculus. Official website.

Related entries

AI forecasting | forecasting | prediction markets

^{^}
Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.
^{^}
Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.
~~External links~~
~~Metaculus. Official website.~~
~~Related entries~~
~~AI forecasting~~ | ~~forecasting~~ | ~~prediction markets~~

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