By plugging in probability distributions or confidence windows, rather than individual estimates, for the values of the parameters in a given model, we can calculate an output for the model that also reflects uncertainty. However, it is important to be careful when performing such calculations, since small mathematical or conceptual errors can easily lead to incorrect or misleading results. A good tool for avoiding these sorts of errors is
Guesstimate (Gooen 2015). Gooen, Ozzie (2015) Guesstimate: An app for making decisions with confidence (intervals) , Effective Altruism Forum , December 30.
credence | forecasting | value of information