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Prediction markets
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Last Chance: Get Tickets to Manifest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
1mo
ago
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Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
2mo
ago
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Manifolio: The tool for making Kelly optimal bets on Manifold Markets
2mo
ago
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Share Your Feedback and Help Us Refine Metaculus’s Scoring System
2mo
ago
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Why is EA so enthusiastic about forecasting?
3mo
ago
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Quick proposal: Decision market regrantor using manifund (please improve)
3mo
ago
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Why I don't trust forecasters
3mo
ago
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A Manifold Market "Leaked" the AI Extinction Statement and CAIS Wanted it Deleted
4mo
ago
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I made a news site based on prediction markets
4mo
ago
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Quick, High-EV Advantage Sportsbetting Opportunity in 18 US States
4mo
ago
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The Charity Entrepreneurship top ideas new charity prediction market
5mo
ago
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Don't Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
5mo
ago
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Accuracy Agreements: A Flexible Alternative to Prediction Markets
5mo
ago
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Metaculus's Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament Enters 2nd Round
6mo
ago
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Proposal + Demo: Connect Guesstimate and Metaculus and Turn them into Trees
6mo
ago
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Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10
6mo
ago
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Research Summary: Prediction Markets
6mo
ago
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Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold Markets
7mo
ago