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All of AlanGreenspan's Comments + Replies

Investigative Journalists are more effective altruists than most
AlanGreenspan7mo-2
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IJ in developing countries where they're needed the most probably have a full time job doing something else, and probably don't make more than $4k/year. In first world countries, sure, go for $50k/avg. 
Obviously when you focus on something you can bring down the price, but attacking corruption at such a big scale does bring up the cost. IJ aren't enough. Lawyers are needed, but they're all pro bono because they know this work needs to be done. 
 We're talking billions of people affected. Yes the numbers can be completely different becaus... (read more)

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TheMatAllen
7mo
I'm surprised no one commented in response. My initial impression is that if 75% of the world was working on stopping AI, that would presumably include government and policy who could very well tell the remaining 25% that they can't work on AI. As far the infohazards of thinking about developing AI; I think that's beyond what we can do. Ada Lovelace thought about AI in the 1840's (https://www.nist.gov/blogs/taking-measure/ada-lovelace-worlds-first-computer-programmer-who-predicted-artificial), and the possibility of massive economic gains is enough to encourage even a small number of people to continue working on it (and if fewer people are thinking about it, the competition is even smaller, thus the rewards much greater). I do agree that there are awful things going on in the world, and ideally AI will be able to solve or massively fix those problems (on a scale that humans just aren't able to).
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NickLaing
8mo
I don't think AI trolls are likely. I do think that the down vote karma issue needs some kind of solution. I see a lot of posts and comments that get karma down votes that don't make sense I suspect karma down vote still regularly gets used as a proxy for disagree vote, which is unfortunate.
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brook
8mo
I think this comment is flamebait, and broke Forum norms. Examples below:  I’d like if the discussion could be more civil going forwards. 
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Jackson Wagner
8mo
For what it's worth, I didn't mean to come off as being hostile to the idea that EA should pay more attention to the exploitation of poor countries. I really just don't know much about this area -- for example I've never before heard the idea that France has an extractive relationship with former colonies that use the French currency. Maybe to you, "neoliberalism" is a very clear-cut concept. But personally, I would have a hard time telling apart which loans are good and which are ill-intentioned debt traps. (Is the IMF mostly good and Belt-And-Road mostly bad? Or probably they are both bad? Or maybe it depends on a country-by-country basis?) So to me, sadly, the concept of "neoliberalism" really is vague. By the way, I also don't think of myself as "woke", I actually consider myself pretty "anti-woke". So, I think you are probably picturing some kind of "generic member of the elite who loves wokeness", but I'm not that guy! I actually share your frustration at the ways that people (journalists, leaders, rich people, but also ordinary folks) focus on exaggerated culture-war issues instead of paying attention to the things that are objectively most important -- things like like growth and wellbeing of the developing world, or existential risk, or etc. "People should feel ashamed to think that this is OK. To turn a blind eye to this is as bad as to be a normal innocent german citizen during WW2." Yes, sadly I think this is true for a lot of things. I feel this way sometimes about the vast scale of animal suffering. I feel this way about how our institutions and leaders are some mix of hostile and incompetent. About the unfairness of society, of the universe, the arbitrary circumstances of people's birth. About how little we do to protect the long-term future of human civilization and the planet Earth. I sometimes feel like I am a normal innocent german citizen turning a blind eye, not just to one WW2, but to like five different WW2s that my nation is committing at
Why not invest towards ending neocolonialism?
AlanGreenspan8mo1
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That's fine of course, just additional thoughts. If you think you can achieve #1 without the others, by all means, is it then not a better option to do than spending over a decade investing in simple bandaids and hoping someone else solves this issue? Or that the big $ coming in from China/Japan/Russia/etc actually improves the QOL for everyone... and not just the logistics system that brings them more natural resources? I sincerely doubt we'll see another Rwanda in even 5 other countries in Africa in the next 5 years, but maybe 10. 

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Problem areas beyond 80,000 Hours' current priorities
AlanGreenspan4y1
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I think solving real estate will solve the long-term welfare problem, which will improve education and bring to light the rest of effective altruism's movements.

This needs to be discussed much more, because it could be solved quite easily, and have an exponential affect on the rest of society.

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Solution to Housing Crisis
AlanGreenspan5y1
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I think it's kind of ridiculous, goes back to the emotional aspect of philanthropy in people will donate to something that makes them feel good instead of doing the biggest bang with their buck. Like Anand talks about..

Donating to distributing drugs in Africa is one such thing. You could impact invest in an application that sends people in Africa a reminder to take a TB shot, and save millions of lives... but Prevention is exponentially better. Stop donating money sending americans on trips to africa for 'aid', just build better homes and in... (read more)

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Solution to Housing Crisis
AlanGreenspan5y1
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The problem with rent to own is the downpayment, and the locked in contract. Today's society simply doesn't allow the second to occur due to how often people switch jobs, remote working, etc, and too many scams have dissuaded people from doing the first.

The reason why the whole debate of is renting better than buying a home, is more so because of the added interest than the maintenance. Yes back in the day it was probably more of a fair trade, and of course I remember what happened back in 2008 (whole city blocks in Arizona were boarded up)..but... (read more)

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Denkenberger
5y
There has been a lot of previous discussion within EA about systemic change; see here for an example. Many people think that the reason that places like San Francisco are so expensive is that they are desirable places to live. But actually it is this and that there are restrictions on building. There are lots of cities that are growing rapidly but do not have many restrictions on building, like Nashville (where I used to live), Houston, Denver, etc. that have relatively moderate long-term real estate inflation. There have been Open Philanthropy Project grants looking at land use reform, which would be the sort of systemic change that could reduce cost for both renters and buyers. As for why EAs have deprioritized helping people in developed country poverty, it is generally because they are an order of magnitude richer than the global poor.
Solution to Housing Crisis
AlanGreenspan5y-4
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I'm not talking about the landlord/property owner, I'm speaking for the side of the renter... the people at the bottom of the pyramid... 36% of people 'throw money away' renting someone else's apartment/home.

I'm talking reforming this thought process where we are taking money from people, instead of making money together. Not "for profit", but "with profit". Share the wealth in a non-socialist way

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Denkenberger
5y
I'm talking about the same side - I'm saying that if you can invest well, you can be better off overall putting the money for a down payment into the stock market and renting instead of buying a house. I know less about renting to own, but I would be surprised if it were better (you are still putting money into something with a marginal ROI of the interest rate on the mortgage, which is significantly lower than long term stock returns). Now if one were the type of person to spend the money if it were not going into a home, then the forced savings of owning a home could be better.
Solution to Housing Crisis
AlanGreenspan5y1
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I'm not promoting either rent control or building new housing complexes.

I'm promoting a new type of community, a new type of banking, an option for landlords to create a win-win situation. Don't need to build new buildings, just purchase them, like WeWork, consumers still have the option of just taking their own mortgage, or just to rent, but in reality, there is no reason 'just to rent' with digital technologies available.

Foundations & impact investors can purchase apartment buildings, and still make money renting out the prop... (read more)

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Denkenberger
5y
Renting is not throwing away money. Though markets vary, rent approximately equals the interest on the mortgage plus taxes plus insurance plus maintenance. The reason you could make money buying (or renting to own) is because of appreciation. US average appreciation for the same house (not new houses!) is around 2%, but since you only have to put 20% down, that could be a 10% ROI, at least initially. Markets with restrictions on building have been a lot higher appreciation than this, but there is the risk that there will be reform or autonomous vehicles, and then you could not just lose the money invested, but actually have negative value (as happened to many people around 2009).