All of Conor_Spence's Comments + Replies

This is great, Erwan! Thanks for sharing this. 

Look forward to seeing you guys on Saturday! :) 

2
Vasco Grilo
1y
Likewise!

The book will be released very soon on August 16 ( US), and September 1 (UK). Now seems like a good time to signal boost if you're thinking of doing this. 

Looks like this will be released on August 16 ( US), and September 1 (UK). Seems like a good time to signal boost. 

Moreover, Metaculus is currently on 10% for  >100 nuclear detonations given one fatality by 2024. Seems about right. a bit of an underestimate. 

Thanks Jan! Just saw this after creating my social media blurb. I've added it to my other comment here. 

More details you can add (if needed):
-----------

Most of the questions are simple ‘clickable’ answer choices, but the final question gives you an opportunity to write further comments / make requests if you like. For example, you could ask for:
 

  • An EU Commissioner for Animal Welfare.
  • Specific legislation for fish.
  • Better protection for animals used in economic activity in general (not just farming).
  • Legislation based on the ‘Five Domains’ framework.
  • A ban on cephalopod farming.
  • A ban on fur farming.

It’s best if you write these comments IN YOUR OWN WORDS... (read more)

I created a short blurb for use on social media posts. Feel free to use it:
---   

This is probably the most impactful action you can take for animals this year! 

The European Union (EU) is currently conducting what may be the most important survey ever created for animals. 

The EU is revising its animal welfare laws and is using this survey to collect input. Some countries have very few responses so far, and so this seems a particularly low effort way to influence major policy decisions at the EU level. It doesn’t take long to complete and... (read more)

2
Conor_Spence
2y
More details you can add (if needed): ----------- Most of the questions are simple ‘clickable’ answer choices, but the final question gives you an opportunity to write further comments / make requests if you like. For example, you could ask for:   * An EU Commissioner for Animal Welfare. * Specific legislation for fish. * Better protection for animals used in economic activity in general (not just farming). * Legislation based on the ‘Five Domains’ framework. * A ban on cephalopod farming. * A ban on fur farming. It’s best if you write these comments IN YOUR OWN WORDS so not everyone writes exactly the same words!   ---------   Or please see suggestions given above by Neil and Jan!  Thanks!   

Thanks, Peter, glad this text guide is useful! For some reason the images in the google doc guide don't display very well on my phone. I'm not sure if others will have this issue. It displays clearly on the computer though. I guess most people will complete the EU survey at a computer alongside the guide, so it may not be an issue. 

I've  written a Google doc guide showing how to fill-in the survey with screenshots (example below) so people can complete the survey quickly and conveniently. 

I used the suggestions from the Anima International video on YouTube and their website that you mentioned.  Thanks for creating this post! 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/13q0Oya3CpuBuzF2zuBsFf6vmjdrYaJeLeiAB1nrrOks/edit?usp=sharing 

Thanks for making this doc Conor! I don’t have many Twitter followers, but I tweeted your guide along with the Anima International video. 😄

Sorry, the link to the 'live' statistics from Chinese Health centres was broken:

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

I've also updated the link in the original post.

Here’s Google Translate if you need it: https://translate.google.com/

I am an EA living in China right now. Thanks for sharing this post on the Coronavirus. I am also very interested in these questions.


We do not know what percentage of people experience symptoms so mild that they do not seek medical attention and so do not appear in the 'Suspected' or 'Confirmed' case statistics.

here: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

and here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Here’s Google Translate if you need it: https://translate.google.com/


Nevertheless, as you mentioned, attempts have been ma... (read more)

1
Conor_Spence
4y
Sorry, the link to the 'live' statistics from Chinese Health centres was broken: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia I've also updated the link in the original post. Here’s Google Translate if you need it: https://translate.google.com/
4
Tsunayoshi
4y
Just some quick thoughts: -Your lowest discovery rate (15%) might still be too high, this recent preprint estimates 0.05% https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf -The spreadsheet compares the current number of deaths with the current number of known cases. However, deaths will always leak behind the number of confirmed cases; this way you will be underestimating death rate. -It might also be interesting to do some back of the envelope math on the cases outside of China, since discovery rate should be much higher. So far, there are very few serious, and I think no critical conditions. However, most confirmed infections outside of China are actually people who were infected in China and then traveled overseas which selects for people healthy enough to travel, so mostly younger. Doing a proper analysis of those numbers will be hard; one could compare them to SARS figures of the relevant age bracket.