All of DisposableUsername's Comments + Replies

1
Mati_Roy
3y
That's a complicated way of saying "I don't think it works" 0_o
9
RyanCarey
9y
Let's maintain some standards of discourse where you have to give reasoning if you want to disagree! http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html http://lesswrong.com/lw/85h/better_disagreement/

Buy sperm from the most talented males in various domains of economic interest. Then offer poor women from all over the world money and citizenship in exchange for surrogate prengancies with said sperm.

Give the resulting children a top-notch education. Their human capital will then be taxed normally, to refinance the expense.

Any rich-country government could do this.

But because typical renewable energy pays back the energy investment in about three years, if we just took the energy output of renewable energy and reinvested it, the amount of renewable energy production would grow at about 30% per year.

How many scarce materials would be needed? How much land area? How much toxic waste would be produced, e.g. from solar elecontronic components? Energy investment is not the only input needed for renewables.

(If you have a link that answers these and similar questions, that would be good.)

1
Denkenberger
8y
Thanks for the good questions. Wind power can use scarce materials, like rare earth permanent magnet generators. But it is possible just to use copper. Some photovoltaic technologies use scarce materials, but silicon is abundant. US per person primary energy use is ~10 kW: Energy Information Administration. “Annual Energy Review 2007.” If we start with renewable electricity, we need less primary energy, 4-8 kW, so say 6 kW. So 10 billion people require 60 trillion watts (TW). Current wind technology could provide 72 TW: Archer, C. and M. Jacobson. “Evaluation of global wind power.” JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462, 2005. Solar maximum on land is ~6,000 TW, but practical ~600 TW: Lewis, N.S. “Powering the Planet” California Institute of Technology presentation. If solar is 10% efficient and average solar radiation is 200 W/square meter, this requires ~0.1 acre/person: 5% of ecological footprint quota, but could be in desert or on rooftops. Of course we need to be careful with toxic waste, but landfills take up a negligible amount of land.

I sent 5 euros to you! :)

What I don't see is how FRI could actually change the future. No matter how much research you publish, there's no reason to predict it will actually influence real decisions which affect real future suffering.

So it is only a theoretical activity (still fun and legitimate, of course).

Thanks for answering. I don't really care about computer consciousnesses because I'm somewhat of a carbon chauvinist; I only care what happens to biological humans and other vertebrates who share my ancestry and brain architecture. I think the rest is just our empathy misfiring.

AI or em catastrophe would be terrible, but likely not hellish, so it would be merely a dead future, not a net-negative one.

The things I'm most concerned about are blind spots like animal suffering and political risks like irrational policies that cause more harm than benefit. If we... (read more)

I believe that the future will generally be net beneficial.

That seems.... optimistic. Why do you believe that?

1
Denkenberger
9y
On the biological human side, since we have figured out how to grow our economies faster than our population, our standard of living has increased much beyond subsistence. Many would argue that even at subsistence, human existence was still net positive, but I think it is fairly clear that human existence in developed countries currently is net positive. In the future, barring a global catastrophe, I think we could maintain or increase our standard of living (see my second comment here). On the computer consciousness side, it is much less straightforward. Robin Hanson has written a lot on what the future might be like if there are many competing computer consciousnesses (e.g. link). Since it is so easy to create a copy of software, he argues that the big supply of labor will reduce wages to subsistence levels, unless we somehow are able to regulate the process. I couldn't find exactly where, but I believe he argues that the subsistence levels might be quite happy. The logic went something like an optimally productive worker is generally a happy and highly motivated worker, like a workaholic. However, if there is fast takeoff of an individual computer consciousness, that could become completely dominant. Making that a happy outcome is where MIRI comes in. I am currently pretty scared about our chances in this scenario. But now that we even have Bill Gates concerned about it (though not donating yet), I am hopeful we can improve our odds soon.

This number is low enough that nations with average consumption PPP less than 10^{2.2} = 158 are classified to have a negative quality of life. I think this is stupid.

Why do you think it's stupid? Sometimes people get tortured horribly, or die of horrible slow causes. Surely you need some minimum on the positive side to outweigh that?

People can also have a negative quality of life and still keep going and reproducing for various other reasons.

Assuming human-level AGI is expensive and of potential military value, it seems likely the governments of USA and probably other powers like China will be strongly involved in its development.

Is it now time to create an official process of international government-level coordination about AI safety? Is it realistic and desirable?

I would also much prefer if altruism was obsolete. You could watch your hero stories on TV and be done with it. :)

Doctors sometimes pompously remark that medicine is the only profession that works towards its own obsolescence.

I see doctors more as organized rentseekers who peddle artificial scarcity. Not only don't they invent the drugs they prescribe, they earn money because we need their permission before we can buy a prescription drug from the pharma industry. We can't even sign a legal waiver to reject this paternalism.

Many times have I brought money into a doctor's practice only to fetch the piece of paper that I needed to buy what I wanted to buy from other people.

1
Gregory Lewis
9y
Off topic: As a member of the aforementioned rent-seeking organisation, I might be biased, but I'm fairly pro- regulating access to medical substances via prescriptions or similar. The value a doctor (hopefully) provides when prescribing is that they will select the right medication, and I'd back them to get this right significantly more often than (even well informed) laypeople. Maybe a libertarian would be happy with legal waivers etc. to get access to medical substances (let an individual decide the risks that are tolerable, and let the market set the price on how much value expert prescribing adds!), but most folks might be happy for some paternalism to protect people from the dangers - even it means savvy educated laypeople suffer some costs. Besides, even if you could waiver away your own damages, most countries have some degree of socialized medicine which are obliged to treat you, and the costs to health services of medication errors are already significant. I'd guess letting amateurs have a go would increase this still further.

Aren't you double-counting DALYs here? Imagine 2 charities:

Charity 1 prevents Malaria deaths in children. Charity 2 pays for the costs of living of poor people.

If Charity 1 prevents a Malaria death and then Charity 2 pays for the costs of living of the saved person, each will count each year as a DALY win per x$ donated. But they can't both claim full credit.

Of course, maybe the person won't be poor. Maybe they'll be a great inventor. Or maybe they'll be a violent criminal. Or something in between.

And what is the unpleasantness of using Malaria bed nets in... (read more)

0
tomstocker
9y
Also, the sooner malaria is controlled, the fewer bed-net-nights there will be overall??
0
Hauke Hillebrandt
9y
Charity 1 prevents Malaria deaths in children. Charity 2 pays for the costs of living of poor people. If Charity 1 prevents a Malaria death and then Charity 2 pays for the costs of living of the saved person, each will count each year as a DALY win per x$ donated. But they can't both claim full credit. Great question. Yes, you'd be double counting in this case. The DALY is not perfect, and should always be seen as just a general rough guide, and never be the sole influence for making decisions. As they say, all models are wrong, but some are useful :) Malaria nets are unpleasant to sleep under, but it's much better than getting malaria. I'm not aware of any studies that measure how much of a reduction in quality of life they result in, but I imagine the effect to be quite small.