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All of ghabs's Comments + Replies

ghabs's Quick takes
ghabs3y4
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If you're an expert in your field and have good credentials (ex. a PhD), you might consider signing up for one of the many 'expert networks' that reporters use to find sources for stories like helpareporter.com or  expertisefinder.com.

These directories seem to be a common way for reporters to connect with domain experts to learn more about a topic area or, maybe more likely, find the right pull quotes to provide evidence for their existing thesis.

While it's unlikely to have a major impact, I expect it would be good to have more EA leaning experts inte... (read more)

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Effective Altruism Prediction Registry
ghabs8y0
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13 in total, from this post and an EA meetup - so 48 hours to find two more to be "well calibrated" on the prediction.

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Effective Altruism Prediction Registry
ghabs8y0
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I'm not familiar with too many "personal" prediction sites, one's you can register your own predictions (outside of predictionbook).

Zocalo, (http://zocalo.sourceforge.net/) is a toolkit for building prediction markets, but isn't currently supported. https://www.cultivatelabs.com/ creates enterprise prediction markets. And Augur is a cryptocurrency based prediction market that is currently in Alpha, but you can spin up your own test nodes if you wanted to run a separate network..

I can't access the facebook group, is it public? would be interested to check it out!

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Tom_Ash
8y
You have to join to see posts.
The Impact Calculator
ghabs8y3
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Thanks for your post - it sounds like the calculator strongly impacted your decision making in a positive way. Were you already aware of EA ideas before encountering it? And do you think that it was the visual presentation of how far your money can go, or the ease of the calculations that was particularly compelling?

It seems like an easy win would be to make the results of the calculator easily shareable, perhaps with a post to facebook button.

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Gleb_T
8y
Yup, I was already actively aware of EA ideas before encountering it, but it helped me become more aware and clearly visualize the impact of my giving. I think it helped make me a better aspiring effective altruist :-) I think it was primarily specific visual presentation of how far my money can go that made it really compelling, and secondarily the ease of the calculations. Nice idea about the making the results of the calculator easily shareable! I'll pass it on to The Life You Can Save.
Investment opportunity for the risk neutral
ghabs8y2
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You note it, but I don't think your calculations truly take into account the counterparty / political risk of being unable to get liquid from Russian stocks. That risk factor is built into the current low price of Russian stocks - why do you think the market is wrong? Because of the longer time horizon of young investors?

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Denkenberger
8y
Well, I guess I just see that markets nearly always recover to the long-term mean return (maybe wars are the exception?). So I would say that people are overly optimistic when the market is high relative to that mean, and people are overly pessimistic when the market is low relative to that mean. As Warren Buffett says, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy." Of course we don't know how long it will take to revert to the mean, so there is always short-term risk. But I've seen data indicating that seven years is a typical time, which is not too long. My calculations just say, "if it reverts to the mean." With all the issues with leverage, let's say mean reversion means only 10 times the money. And let's say that a random long-term investment is 8% per year-that's a factor of 1.7 over seven years. If you are risk neutral, you would have to believe there is a >83% chance of losing all the money for this to not be a good investment, which I highly doubt (17% chance of making 10 times the money is worth 1.7 times the investment).