A Quick point I forgot to make (or understand fully on the point). RE the fast takeoff comment at the end. Agreed. I had both on the original, fast takeoff controlled, fast takeoff uncontrolled, as well as CAIS fast, mod, slow, totaling about 6 choices. It got butchered. Way too many choices to rank.
So, I dropped it down to 4; I was told to go to 3, but I thought the "anticipated or unanticipated" points you make are quite valid and key, especially for moderate (equivalent to Christiano-style relatively fast takeoff) which is why there are two option... (read more)
Yes, I'm having a tough time explaining the purpose of the model which has led to very long convoluted descriptions. I am not predicting or attempting to predict any of these conditions. I understand your skepticism and share it. I believe overall that it can be a waste of time to concentrate on forecasting very difficult or impossible to measure issues. That is certainly not the purpose of this.
The point of this is to construct broad categories of plausible (approximately) scenarios and impactful ones (broadly, a lot of these should be marked no eff... (read more)
Updated the survey with a google form that seems to move a little faster. https://forms.gle/92TAeBxE4zttT5P9A
That's a very interesting project. I'd be very curious to see the finished product. That has become a frequently discussed aspect of AI safety. One member of my panel is a significant advocate of the importance of AI risk issues and another is quite skeptical and reacts quite negatively to any discussion approaches the A*I word ("quite" may be a weak way of putting it).
But concerning policy communication, I think those are important issues to understand and pinpoint. The variance is certainly strange.
Side note: As a first-time poster, I realize... (read more)