All of Guest's Comments + Replies
ELIEZER: How does AMF get us to a 1% better long-term future? Are you envisioning something along the lines of “Starting with a 1% more prosperous Earth results in 1% more colonization and hence 1% more utility by the time the stars finally burn out”?
HOLDEN: I guess so. A 1% better earth does a 1% better job in the SWH transition? I haven’t thought about this much and don’t feel strongly about what I said.
LOL
2
10y
I think that that can be an appropriate epistemic state, and that it's valuable to have norms where you admit which of your beliefs you have less confidence in. I'm not sure what the problem here is.
0
10y
I think that comment is mostly Holden being modest.
Nice post - many interesting points!
One minor comment, regarding this bit:
"In the light of this reality, the rationalist suggestion I have encountered – that one guard against a desire to become a parent by pre-emptively being sterilised before the desire has arisen – seems a recipe for psychological disaster."
It strikes me that one straightforward way to test this claim empirically would be to look at the extent to which the lives of people who are infertile due to some pathology tend to end in "psychological disaster.”
According to the mos...
0
10y
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
As a medical professional, as well as within my friendship group, I've actually had very extensive experience of people experiencing sub-fertility or infertility. On the basis of that experience I have quite a high prior for this statement. One friend, who underwent 3 years of testing and treatment before becoming pregnant described her feeling on being pregnant as 'the first time in 3 years I haven't felt sad, stressed and unhappy for every hour of the day'.
The essay cited seems to conclude that the literature reveals only 'stress' but not enough to result in a diagnosis of a psychiatric disorder. I would argue the levels of stress involved do not need to meet the criteria for major depression in order to have a significantly negative impact on one's life and productivity. A more recent review of the literature (2007) suggests prevalence of depression and anxiety in patients seeking treatment for infertility that are 2 to 4 times the general population (with rates between 20 and 40% compared with 10%) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1521693406001611
Finally, one of the most pervasive emotions experience by people suffering sub-fertility or infertility is a sense of guilt and failure, even among those who know this rationally not to be the case. If you knew you had deliberately produced this difficulty, it seems reasonable to predict those feelings would be very much amplified.
6
10y
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
As a medical professional, as well as within my friendship group, I've actually had very extensive experience of people experiencing sub-fertility or infertility. On the basis of that experience I have quite a high prior for this statement. One friend, who underwent 3 years of testing and treatment before becoming pregnant described her feeling on being pregnant as 'the first time in 3 years I haven't felt sad, stressed and unhappy for every hour of the day'.
The essay cited seems to conclude that the literature reveals only 'stress' but not enough to result in a diagnosis of a psychiatric disorder. I would argue the levels of stress involved do not need to meet the criteria for major depression in order to have a significantly negative impact on one's life and productivity. A more recent review of the literature (2007) suggests prevalence of depression and anxiety in patients seeking treatment for infertility that are 2 to 4 times the general population. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1521693406001611
Finally, one of the most pervasive emotions experience by people suffering sub-fertility or infertility is a sense of guilt and failure, even among those who know this rationally not to be the case. If you knew you had deliberately produced this difficulty, it seems reasonable to predict those feelings would be very much amplified.
The problem, in my opinion, isn't Holden's confession that he isn't particularly confident in his views here. In fact, I completely agree with you that we ought to have norms that encourage the expression of appropriate levels of epistemic humility.
The problem (/what may strike one as amusing) is rather the obvious incoherence in the combination of, on the one hand, Holden's lack of confidence regarding the claim Eliezer asks him to consider and, on the other hand, the much higher confidence he appears to place in the claim that something like donations t... (read more)