86Joined Sep 2021


I'm really glad to hear it! Polishing is ongoing. Replied on GH too!

  1. The probability of any one story being "successful" is very low, and basically up to luck, though connections to people with the power to move stories (ex. publishers, directors) would significantly help. 
  2. Most ex-risk scenarios are perfect material for compelling and entertaining stories. They tap into common tropes (hubris of humans and scientists), are near-future disaster scenarios, and can have opposed hawk and dove characters. I imagine that a successful ex-risk movie could have a narrative shaped like Jurassic Park or The Day After Tomorrow.
  3. My actionable advice is that EA writers and potential EA writers should write EA fiction alongside their other fiction and we should explore connections with publishers.

    As a side-note, I wrote an AI-escapes-the-box story the other week, and have since used Midjourney to illustrate it, as is fitting: If anybody would like to read the first draft, message me! 

I love Possible Worlds Tree! It's aligned with the optimistic outlook, conveys the content better, and has a mythology pun. I couldn't be happier. Messaging re: bounty!

Thanks for all the feedback! I think the buffs to interactivity are all great ideas. They should mostly be implemented this week. 

A positive title would definitely help! I'll think on this.

Agreed. I think it needs a 'name' as a symbol, but the current one is a little fudged. My placeholder for a while was 'the tree of forking paths' as a Borges reference, but that was a bit too general...

This isn't exactly what I'm looking for (though I do think that concept needs a word). 


The way I'm conceptualizing it right now is that there are three non-existential outcomes:

1. Catastrophe
2. Sustenance  / Survival
3. Flourishing 

If you look at Toby Ord's prediction, he includes a number for flourishing, which is great. There isn't a matching prediction in the Ragnarok series, so I've squeezed 2 and 3 together as a "non-catastrophe" category.  

Thanks! I hadn't thought of user interviews, that's a great idea!

Thank you! And yeah, this is an artifact of the green nodes being filled in from the implicit  inverse percent of the Ragnarok prediction and not having its own prediction. I could link to somewhere else, but it would need to be worth breaking the consistency of the links (all Metaculus Ragnarok links).

There's good discussion happening in the Discord if you want to hop in there!

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