All of janklenha's Comments + Replies

Czech forecasting project: Summary

Many thanks to our team, especially to Blanka Havlíčková and Vojtěch Brynych, but also to Michal Keda, Viktorie Havlíčková, Radim Lacina, Tereza Majerová and all our exernal advisors!

Forecasting of Priorities: a tool for effective political participation?

Possibly. Yes, it could be split between separate mechanisms 1) Public budgeting tool using quadratic voting for what I want govs to fund now, and 2) Forecasting tournament/prediction market for what will be the data/consensus about national priorities 3y later (without knowing forecasters´ prior performance, multiple-choice Surprising popularity approach could also be very relevant here). I see benefits in trying to merge these and wanted to put it out here, but yes, I'm totally in favor of more experimenting with these ideas separately, that's what we hope to do in our Megatrends project :)

Forecasting of Priorities: a tool for effective political participation?

Citizens are incentivized to predict what experts will say? This seems a little bit weak, because experts can be arbitrarily removed from reality. You might think that, no, our experts have a great grasp of reality, but I'd intuitively be skeptical. As in, I don't really know that many people who have a good grasp of what the most pressing problems of the world are.

Yes, there are not many experts with this kind of grasp, but a DELPHI done by a diversified group of experts from various fields seems to be currently the best method for identifying megatrends ... (read more)

You could decompose that complex question into smaller questions which are more forecastable, and forecast those questions instead, in a similar way to what CSET is doing for geopolitical scenarios. For example: * Will a new category of government spending take up more than X% of a country's GDP? If so, which category? * Will the Czech Republic see war in the next X years? * Will we see transformative technological change? In particular, will we see robust technological discontinuities in any of these X domains / some other sign-posts of transformative technological change? * ... This might require having infrastructure to create and answer large number of forecasting questions efficiently, and it will require having a good ontology of "priorities/mega-trends" (so most possible new priorities are included and forecasted), as well as a way to update that ontology.
Have you considered that you're trying to do too many things at the same time?
Forecasting of Priorities: a tool for effective political participation?

don’t they have plenty of that already and further pressures are actually negative if they think they know best?

Yes, but a lot of it seems to be the inputs from the lobby, interest groups, or people who are mostly virtue signaling to their peers, honest citizen participation (citizen assemblies etc.) is not that common... In this case, the government pre-commits to only allocate a small part of the budget accordingly, apart from that, politicians can still do what they think they know best.

Who are the experts? I expect this to cause controversy. ... Maybe

... (read more)
Thanks, interesting points. Yes, predicting what unknown experts will conclude seems reasonable to me (though NunoSempere's points also seem sensible). Looking forward to read your next update!
Policy prioritization in a developed country

Thanks for the feedback, this is very helpful!

EA vs. CCC values: I think about prioritization as a 3-step process of choosing a cause, an intervention, and then a specific organization. EA, 80k Hours or Global priorities are focused especially on choosing causes (the most „meta“ activity), GiveWell and charity evaluators are focusing on the third step – recommending organizations. Copenhagen Consensus´ approach can be seen as a compatible middle step in this process – prioritizing between possible interventions and solutions (hopefully more and more in the... (read more)

I assume this is 3% real (adjusted for inflation) discount rate. This is actually similar to global per capita income growth. Since a dollar is worth less to a rich person (logarithmic utility), EAs are generally ok with discounting at the economic growth rate. This means we are valuing the utility of future generations the same as present generations.
And I would be happy if our prioritization research discusses other heuristics such as the ones that Denis ( [] ) or Michael ( []) propose.
Policy prioritization in a developed country

Sure, I´m here particularly looking for 1) general arguments for or against national policy prioritization; 2) references to suitable international sources of funding; and 3) mapping the possibility of community engagement in choosing which policies to run cost-benefit analyses on, once the project starts.

Open Thread #39

Hi, I´d like to share a full post about a potential of cost-benefit prioritization projects in developed countries. I´m heavily involved in EA, but a newbie to this forum, so need karma points. Here is a link to the planned post, if you think it´s relevant, like this comment :)