All of JDBauman's Comments + Replies

What seems AI written about it? (I'm conscious I received a similar flag from you awhile back too, hah!)

2
NickLaing
read above she changed it.  1. excessive colons 2. it's not x it's y 3. some language which was technically correct but seemed hollow.  but I'll find it hard to describe exactly why sometimes

I was on it yesterday and thought "huh! 1200+ jobs is a lot!" Well done scaling this up!

Please do! This is perhaps the single-best resource to share with Christian friends interested in effective altruism.

We may translate to German. Need to check with the publisher

2
PabloAMC 🔸
What about Spanish? I would be interested because I could give it as a present.

There's a shortfall of evidence around the topic of human trafficking, which my colleague explores in this report on human trafficking. Innovations for Poverty Action explores this in some new reports here, and here.

My sense from a cursory overview of the problem and tentative solutions: human trafficking is an important cause (comparable in scale (DALYs) to a problem like maternal disorders, but the solvability is of much lower confidence than for problems of similar or greater significance, such as malaria deaths. 

For instance, evaluators have stron... (read more)

Reminds me of Oliver, who lived in a van for 4 years to donate as much money as possible to the poor while earning to give at Google. He eventually moved to a studio apartment for better health / dating, and still gives away about just as much many many years later.

Oliver' story below:
 

Thanks for this! I agree the NT puts severe moral weight on care for the poor. Matthew 25 should make any “faith” that never expresses itself in works of mercy look suspect.

Where I think your post is slightly theologically dangerous is in treating salvation a bit like a checklist of criteria humans can meet. The NT is equally clear that none of us meets God’s standard: “None is righteous… no one seeks for God” (Rom 3:10–12), and Jesus’ demand is perfection (Matt 5:48). On that basis, no one is saved.

That’s why the cross matters: “While we were still sinner... (read more)

(I've been lurking your posts, inspired partially by Nick's high opinion of you, partially by my interest in helping animals as effectively as possible!)

9
Vasco Grilo🔸
Thanks for asking, JD! It is also good to know Nick played a role in your interest! I would like to see more research informing how to i) increase the welfare of soil animals, and ii) compare hedonistic welfare across species. Rethink Priorities (RP) has a research agenda covering the latter. I am planning to donate 3 k$ over the next few months to a project on the welfare of springtails, mites, or nematodes. It is not public, but it will most likely start next year. I hope there will be more related projects in the future. People interested in funding research informing how to increase the welfare of soil animals are welcome to fill this very short form. My last substantial donations went to the Arthropoda Foundation. Here is their case for funding them. As I commented there, I would like them to focus more on soil animals. They have so far only made grants targeting farmed arthropods. However, I still think funding Arthropoda is the best publicly available opportunity to increase the welfare of soil animals.

Thank you for your generosity! What animals are you donating to these days? Or are you stocking up a kind of DAF-like instrument for dispursing later?

3
JDBauman
(I've been lurking your posts, inspired partially by Nick's high opinion of you, partially by my interest in helping animals as effectively as possible!)

They don't have to be in conflict. But people feel like they are. Why else don't people give more? Most people just aren't as excited about giving as they are about spending that money on other things in life. 

Ideally giving springs from heart to hands. And the best way to motivate someone else is probably to point to the heart, and the excitement, not the obligation (unless it's an opening hook - the e.g. drowning child experiment is just really strong).

Thanks for the shoutout to EACH, Nick! 

I find myself bobbling between 

1) giving as obligation:
 "whoever has two shirts should give to him who has none" 
"sell your possessions and give to the poor." 
"imagine a child drowning in a shallow pond"

and 2) giving because its exciting
"God loves a cheerful giver"
"It costs just $4,000 to save a life"

It sounds like you've leaned more into the joy, and that's wonderful!

2
NickLaing
The more I think about it, the less paradoxical it seems. I don't think those two are in conflict so much. I think we absolutely are compelled to give, but compelled from "Its the right and best thing to do" perspective, not from a "Do it even if you hate-it-kicking-and-screaming" perspective. I think giving springing on a personal/heart level from gratitiude, but the underlying principle being that hey, this is the right/correct thing to do might actually combine without much paradox. I think if you give because you begrudgingly feel obliged you might be better off not doing it and checking yo heart first?

I expect we'll update this on an (approximately) yearly basis

One obvious answer here that hasn't come up yet -- they can take the 10% pledge! And, of course, hustle at their current job, work their way up, and earn-to-give or build management skills that can later be useful for jobs at direct work organizations

I'm not sure how many 1-1s EA UK does with people who are new to EA, but first timer 1-1s seem especially valuable at helping people who are very new to the movement who maybe didn't get into it through a typical university pipeline or randomly read about it online.

If EA UK existed solely as a lone, gifted community organizer who took a few hundred 1-1s with new members and sought value-adding connections and resources for the EA UK ecosystem, I think might well be worth a 100k yearly budget.

Seems like the commenter is hung up on this "Because afterlife, evangelism dominates" view.

Saving children's lives from malaria might have much greater eternal value than preaching a sermon. That's because preaching and evangelism plausibly aren't the only thing that influence the afterlife. It's commonly held that good deeds will be rewarded in the afterlife, even if only as memories (Matt 5:12). Any positive good experienced over an infinite timeframe is, of course, infinite. 

Recently, philosophers like Brian Cutter and Philip Swenson have written a... (read more)

What is the breakdown by religion? 

3
David_Moss
We rotate religion, politics and diet across different years due to space limitations, so religion wasn't included this year. You can see the results for 2019-2022 here, though, which suggest relatively little change across time.

Thank you for posting this! There's a lot of wisdom here and surely plenty more Christians can (and should!) be doing to share about effective altruism with other Christians.

Super useful, tyvm for sharing.

Thanks for this. I wonder roughly how many hours of "disabling pain" or "hurtful pain" we estimate are diverted by saving 1 DALY. That would help me get a better sense of the tradeoff.

Anyone have a better sense? @NickLaing ?

5
NickLaing
I'm afraid I can't help here. DALYs in global health use discount measures which lie between zero and one. Chronic back pain for example has a disability weight of 0.1, (for simplicity assumes the life of the average person with chronic back pain is 10% worse than someone with no health issues)  I could be missing something but I don't think that we calculate DALY equivalents for excruciating pain for things like torture, which couldn't just be calculated through discounting as they cause net negative living time. that's why they have to be newly estimated for animals in this situation.

Laura Duffy's analyses of this comes close to my view. On the margin, the question between global health charity and animal charity is something like GiveWell top charities *e.g. AMF) vs. ACE top charity (e.g. The Humane League), which is something like "Would you rather save 1 DALY or 40 years of hens from cages to cage-free.

I'm pretty split between the two and my donation habits reflect this; however, I don't think we know how to scale effective animal interventions past the current funding gaps in the low $10ms. For Global health, we do.

Edit: Learned th... (read more)

3
Ariel Simnegar 🔸
I agree with CB's reply. It also may be worth mentioning the footnote from the debate question that the $100m can be spent over any amount of time we wish. So if we add (say) $10m per year over the next 10 years, it doesn't seem like this marginal $100m would be substantially less cost-effective than what would otherwise be spent over the next 10 years.
3
CB🔸
According to the welfare footprint project, going from cages to cage-free removes a large part of the pain laying hens have to go through : Transition to cage-free systems – Welfare Footprint Project "Overall, an average of at least 275 hours of disabling pain, 2,313 hours of hurtful pain and 4,645 hours of annoying pain are prevented [over 60 to 80 weeks] for each hen kept in an aviary instead of CC during her laying life"  Over 40 years of life of several hens, this would be over 7,000 hours of disabling pain and 62,000 hours of hurtful pain removed.   It feels like, comparatively, adding one year of life to someone is much less impressive, even assuming humans have the ability to suffer more?

Thank you for the feedback on the EA Christian / Christians for Impact page!

I wasn't expecting folks to comb through the projects like you did. The fact that you did so encourages me and updates me towards being more public and forthcoming about project and funding proposals. 

Hi Aaron,

I direct EACH. Thanks for your interest - I'd be happy to have a chat anytime.

For a bit about us and our impact, you can read here, or see here for a directory of our linktree.

For Christians who have no interaction with EA, the careers website is a much better entry point, as is this excellent blog article related to effective giving. 

1
Aaron Graifman
Hi @JDBauman, Thank you for getting in touch with me. I shared that website with the local church. I'm very happy to see that there is a thriving community of Christians involved with EA and effective charity. - Aaron

Thanks for this. My view is the same as yours. The first two strike me as "net positive." I'm also unsure about what pigs and dairy cows need. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if they have either "net positive" or "net negative" lives, but I think it's most likely (80%+ chance) they are "net positive."

(Qualifying discussion of net value of existence with " " because I find such valuations always so fraught with uncertainty and I feel I owe other beings tremendous humility in this!) 

I love that John Wesley was a motivation! "Earn all you can, save all you can, give all you can" is surprisingly rarely quoted among Methodists I know... FWIW this article on it at EA for Christians is actually the highest-performing one on the site!

3
Jeff Kaufman 🔸
Thanks! Though to be clear I didn't discover Wesley's views on this until after I'd started earning to give, so I can't count him as a motivation (at least not directly).

Not sure if this is the place to post but I'll share. 

I took the pledge about 6 years ago but I hesitated for years. I think my reasons then were:

(1) Legalism
Pledges risk falling into "legalism" i.e. a habit of relying on specific commitments and stated duties at the expense of a broader, all-encompassing spirit of generosity. 

(2) Low Anchor
Related to (1), 10% sounded great but not so radical. Why set a lower bar for myself than I could handle? Speaking for myself, I thought then (and still do now) that I ought to be giving more than 10%. Plus, d... (read more)

3
GraceAdams🔸
Thanks, JD! I think this is really useful! One thing I always find so interesting is the contrast between people who are in a culture where giving 10% seems normal (and maybe therefore unnecessary or less valuable to take a pledge) and people who are in a culture where it seems extreme!  The comment about community is also really interesting - hopefully we're addressing this over time and making it easier to connect with this global community!

I find this really interesting for personal reasons. I grew up in a Calvinist church (and also, for a brief period of time, considered myself a calvinist).  

Now, looking back, I find it fascinating that the church was successful in motivating itself to take evangelism still very seriously. 

It did so not on consequentialist grounds. No one ever said "evangelize because your effort actually might affect where someone spends eternity." 

Instead, people said things like "evangelize because you can share Good News of the hope that is within you" (... (read more)

Eric Sampson published a paper on this in Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Religion. See here

Abstract: Longtermist Effective Altruists (EAs) aim to mitigate the risk of existential catastrophes. In this paper, I have three goals. First, I identify a catastrophic risk that has been completely ignored by EAs. I call it religious catastrophe: the threat that (as Christians and Muslims have warned for centuries) billions of people stand in danger of going to hell for all eternity. Second, I argue that, even by secular EA lights, religious catastrophe is ... (read more)

2
Harry Luk
Thanks for leading EA for Christians :) Glory to Jesus!

Thank you all very much for sharing!

Answer by JDBauman30
4
0

Isn't it in one sense trivially true that that most of everything in the west was founded by Christians? (most people in the west were Christian for a very long time)

But FWIW many EA charity founders are active Christians.

Bruce Friedrich, founder of GFI (an ACE top-rated animal charity) is firmly Catholic. See --> https://www.christiansforimpact.org/episodes/bruce-friedrich

Paul Niehaus, cofounder of Give directly is Christian. See --> https://youtu.be/J98CRcahYIc?si=IGAe5w86ceQly9wr

The founder of ID Insights and many Charity Entrepreneurship charitie... (read more)

Plenty of Christians would love more neartermist career content (and would be unlikely to engage with 80k as it's currently branded). So over the past year a group of Christian EAs created an advisory for this, under the direction of EA for Christians

See www.christiansforimpact.org

Thank you for this post.

I find the closing comment especially striking "So, I want a more synodal Catholic Church because I find secular communities like nerdfighters, like Effective Altruism9, like the Covid Tracking Project and yes, like some LGBT activists the church persecutes are running laps around the bishops on some of the most important issues of our time."

As far as I can tell (and as much as it disappoints me as a fellow Christian), your conclusion is correct. 

2
Sporkredfox
Hey, I'm super late in responding to this, but thanks for reading! And best of luck with the conference next May

Thanks for writing this! A couple of random thoughts

  1. I'm also surprised by the cost of these CEP retreats ($1,500+ per attendee). Assuming the organizer's salary is already provided for, I expected the cost for the average attendee to be closer to $300-$750. 
  2. Also, I respect the establishment of a scoring system, but the weightings seem problematic. For instance,  "someone reports starting a project in an EA-aligned cause area" receives a score of 50, and "someone meets someone who inspires them to take an opportunity or cause area more seriously"
... (read more)
2
OllieBase
Thanks JD! That isn't always the case. For some, the costs included organizer salary which is a significant expense. But yes, I agree the retreats I looked at weren't super cost-efficient (not that they necessarily should've been) and that retreat organizers can aim for lower. Yes, I do mean something like "a project which generated full-time work for at least two people for several months", not just "updating a website". Note that I rarely used this scoring so I don't think the definition here will swing the results much. Tentatively yes; I think new community members should be encouraged to take actions and try things out, though thinking about cause prioritization and engaging with the ideas thoroughly is probably a first step they need to take anyway so I'm not sure that should change how you think about presenting ideas. Note that, unfortunately, the CEA events team won't be making grants any more (see later post in the sequence).
4
Jason
On (2), my guess is that the 1-point category covers a broad range of events, some of which are worth significantly more than 2% of starting the median project, and some of which are very unlikely to lead to any real-world impact at all.  On (3), I'd note that it may be inadvisible to evaluate community builders on a 50:1 ratio even assuming that is the funders' true preference. If the super-high scoring item is uncommon enough, its existence during a period being evaluated may be a fairly weak predictor of whether it would be present in a future period. For instance, I care a whole lot more about airplane crashes than near-misses, but the number of near-misses in the past few years might be a stronger predictor of future crashes than the number of crashes in the past few years.

I appreciate efforts to get Christians on board about AI risks, but respectfully, Antichrist memes aren't generally taken very seriously. A fundamental issue seems to be that most people (Christians included) don't take superhuman AI as a credible threat. How then could it be a candidate for the Antichrist? 

Related to this thread, Rory Stewart is speaking on "Can EA convince governments to make international aid effective" at the EA Christian 2023 annual conference.

This looks excellent! I'm keen to support this in any way I can.

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime.

Forget fish. Just send cash.

#1

Popular myth says "teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime".

But 200+ studies say "give a poor man cash, lift him out of poverty".

Let's stick to the research.

 

#2 

Teach a man to fish, feed him for a year (maybe).

Give a poor man cash, lift him out of poverty.

Hi Matt, I run EA for Christians. 

This might not be the answer you're looking for but FWIW if you (or anyone reading) have honest doubts about the Christian faith, and you feel you would benefit from respectful discussions about a specific faith/EA topic, I welcome you at our weekly discussion socials

Most who come are Christian. But I have been told also by non-Christians that it is a welcoming and truth-seeking space.

2
MeganNelson 🔸
Seconding this. As someone who grew up with a strong Christian identity that I no longer hold, my conversations about faith and EA with JD and other EA for Christians folks have been very positive. 
5
Nathan Young
I almost said that we should invite some EA Christians along. Probably more utility for everyone. Who doesn't love an argument :P

I'm very excited to see this. EA for Christians is working with local EAs in Kenya and Nigeria to do grassroots outreach. We would love to see more EA community building in an African context, including outreach that builds networks to impactful careers that don't require difficult-to-obtain western visas.

Thank you for the post!

Are you aware of catholic institutes/seminars that discuss themes of AXR? Have you considered starting one?

I could connect you to other Catholics in the EA community who are interested. There's a vibrant community of Christians engaging with these themes.

Hi Sean,

I would be glad to connect with you to discuss EA and religion (especially Christianity!) Would you have time for a short call about this? https://calendly.com/jdbauman

1
Alex Strasser
Hey JD and Sean, did you guys ever end up getting connected?  Sincerely, Someone else interested in the intersection of EA and religion (and also JD's friend)

Thanks for flagging this.

I've updated the language to "do the most good" to avoid any confusion.