Yes, that makes sense. How about stating that reasoning and thereby nudging participants to post in the EA forum/LessWrong/Alignment Forum, but additionally have a non-public submission form? My guess would be that only a small number of participants would then submit via the form, so the amount of additional work should be limited. This bet seems better to me than the current bet where you might miss really important contributions.
… if only they had allowed people not to publish on EA Forum, LessWrong, and Alignment Forum :)
Honestly, it seems like a mistake to me to not allow other ways of submission. For example, some people may not want to publicly apply for a price or be associated with our communities. An additional submission form might help with that.
Priorisierung der fernen Zukunft
His parents are Stanford law professors. I think this is a more impressive fact than the other items one could have observed about Sam prior to becoming extremely successful.
Thanks for these interesting points!
About the first 3 statements on existential risks, takeoff scenarios and how influential our time is: How much is your view the general wisdom of experts in the corresponding research fields (I'm not sure what this field would be for assessing our influence on the future) and how much is it something like your own internal view?