All of ljusten's Comments + Replies

We've done a fairly thorough investigation into air sampling as an alternative to wastewater at the NAO. We currently have a preprint on the topic here and a much more in-depth draft we hope to publish soon. 

I support both ideas - adding/expanding the UVGI page and starting discussion of a new far-UVC page on wikitalk. There is already one mention of starting a separate page on wikitalk. 

I think it's warranted given the distinct biophysical effects of this spectral band as well as the development of far-UVC as a commercial technology and area of broader interest.  

Low-hanging fruit for someone interested in the public communications side... make a Wikipedia page for far-UVC! One day I'll get to this myself...

Thanks! This is helpful because it clarifies a few areas where we disagree. 

If a bioterrorist is already capable of understanding and actually carrying out the detailed instructions in an article like this, then I'm not sure that an LLM would add that much to his capacities. 

I think future LLMs will likely still be very helpful for such people since there are more steps to being an effective bioterrorist than just understanding, eg existing reverse genetics protocols. I don't want to say much more on that point. That said, I'm personally less con... (read more)

Hi Stuart, 

Thanks for your feedback on the paper. I was one of the authors, and I wanted to emphasize a few points. 

The central claim of the paper is not that current open-source models like Llama-2 enable those looking to obtain bioweapons more than traditional search engines or even print text. While I think this is likely true given how helpful the models were for planning and assessing feasibility, they can also mislead users and hallucinate key details. I myself am quite uncertain about how these trade off against e.g. using Google – you can... (read more)

This is a really great list! Thanks for taking the time to write this post.

I am starting to worry that the possibility of Russia using conventional or perhaps more likely tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict is real.   My concern is one largely based in this article by Francesca Giovannini : A hurting stalemate? The risks of nuclear weapon use in the Ukraine crisis. 

For Mr. Putin, any kind of losing the war with Ukraine seems like a non-option, given his domestic situation and the possibility that his regime could come to an end. 

The article outlines three assumptions that those who don't think Russia w... (read more)

Very interesting post, thanks for taking the time to write it up.  It sounds like the BIS is moving in the right direction on regulating some sensitive biotech stuff.  While it seems like there are some obvious things to add to this list (e.g. dangerous pathogens), it also seems like a lot of the dual-use stuff would be non-obvious to regulate this way given that many of the technologies that could be used to engineer a pathogen also have legitimate scientific and industrial applications. 

I've included some of my shallow notes on this topic ... (read more)

Nice post. I would also add that Sam's podcast with Toby Ord discussed many EA-related concepts including the GWWC pledge. I signed up directly as a result of that podcast and I would expect that there may have been a similar spike as seen after the Will MacAskill episodes. 

Related: I have also recommended it be possible to submit specific research questions to Effective Thesis, but never heard back. Submitting EA-relevant positions to 80,000 hours seems like another great tool. +1

Yes there is a kind of "Narcissism of small differences" in which societal progress is measured in the context of a wealthy western countries instead of the broader world. The social justice initiatives in the U.S. do not benefit or extend to people of color in poorer countries who often suffer under even more pronounced economic or state injustices (e.g. deadly malaria mosquitoes, malnutrition, lack of access to healthcare, jobs, education, and internet, government oppression, etc).  I believe this is in part because people in the U.S. don't know how how much worse quality of life can be in poorer or more  authoritarian countries. 

I didn't read the entire article, but overall I thought it was alright. I thought your definition of shallow should have been more flushed out and to me that just took away from everything else.  I think all comments add value.

Did I get them all? :D 

Yea that is very interesting. Foreign aid is definitely not a super important issue for voters in the U.S. but it is surprisingly bipartisan. I think even those with more hawkish or isolationist messages recognize for the importance of foreign aid for national security. 

Increasing public awareness on foreign aid spending could definitely help incentivize more reform. I applaud the efforts by the ONE campaign. 

Hi Tony. I just released a second post Is Foreign Aid Effective? where I share a review of aid effectiveness literature. Overall I think that yes aid is an effective mechanism to do good in the world. Important functions like food security and humanitarian relief are almost entirely dependent on foreign aid and are definitely "effective." 

Of course the effectiveness of aid is still far from ideal. There lot of examples in which foreign aid projects had no impact or even a negative impact on the recipient countries. Much like we have discovered with ch... (read more)