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Currently trying to figure out how to allocate $500,000 from the EA funds donor lottery. If you know something good that for some reason is looking for funding, let me know!

Also a Software Developer donating most of my income, looking for opportunities to help the community and to more efficiently have a positive impact.


Topic Contributions

Help Understanding QALYs?

I found the Wikipedia page pretty useful and approachable as an introduction, it has a graphical representation of the graph in @ryancbriggs answer, similar to the ones in the book.

The brown area is the effect of the intervention in QALYs

I think that the quote about back pain refers to the Time trade-off methodology of computing QALYs.

For more details on how QALYs are computed in practice, you might be interested in this recent question and the many links in the answers and comments.

The definition on the forum topic page could also be useful, or some of the posts linked there.

$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge

This tool converts Guesstimate models into Squiggle models

I think the link should go to https://recursing.github.io/guesstimate_to_squiggle/

Disclaimer: it's very MVP, needs manual tweaking for many models

A Response to OpenPhil's R&D Model

because they don't have a comments section

The author also posted on this forum,   https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DyH3nFdtQyHdchREy/report-on-social-returns-to-productivity-growth I wonder if it might make sense to link to this in the comments there.

If you narrow R&D down to "projects which are likely to predominantly benefit the poor," then there is a solid case for charitable research.

I think the author agrees, see my comment in the other post

Why You Should Give a TEDX Talk

Thank you so much for giving this talk! I think it was very motivating and well-spoken.

This was my first time publicly speaking and I think you can tell.

For what it's worth, I couldn't tell. There was a slip at one point but it didn't impact the overall message at all.

Although I still got good traction, I think I could’ve done a much better job in terms of confidence and gotten even more people engaged.

I don't think the difference would have been necessarily significant. I think that people that are likely to become highly engaged and do a lot of good are probably very receptive to these ideas, and once exposed to them will easily find other resources.

By the way, I've seen people estimate the value of an extra highly engaged EA at more than ~$100,000. If your talk caused even ~3 more people to take meaningful action, or to take it sooner than they would have otherwise, it did quite a lot of good!

Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?

Wildly guessing, but I don't think it's a technological issue.
Givewell does publish upper and lower estimates for some of their analyses, at least they did for malnutrition interventions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IdZLSBgEK46vc7cX9C7KnFgUcOk_M0UIYJ8go_DrvS0/edit#gid=1468241237 see at the bottom, 4x to 19x cash.
Many of their CEAs (e.g. new incentives)  are just one column. Even for the ones that have one column per country, they could have multiple sheets for upper and lower bounds.

I agree with your second point, I think GiveWell's mission is not informing many small donors anymore, but informing OpenPhil (and maybe other big players), and OpenPhil cares mostly about GiveWell's best guess about "what does the most good".

I disagree with the uncertainty being "not actually that high", or that moral uncertainties should be considered separately. Considering moral uncertainty, the impact can vary by orders of magnitude. See https://blog.givewell.org/2008/08/22/dalys-and-disagreement/ (very old blog post, but I think the main point still stands), and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3h3mscSSTwGs6qbei/givewell-s-charity-recommendations-require-taking-a. I think many donors would be interested in seeing those kinds of uncertainties somewhere.

Since the WSJ is paywalled for many I've copied this piece below.

I think that's a copyright violation and we shouldn't do that?

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