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Desperation Hamster Wheels

Thank you for writing this fantastic post! 

I think understanding & growing more skillful in this territory is extremely important (from an impact-maximizing perspective and from other perspectives too).

I'm reminded of some of the practices I listed here, and of Jessica's post On hiding the source of knowledge as well.

How do you think the professional and social spaces you were participating in during this time interacted with the hamster-wheel feeling?

The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset

Yes, I think the crux here is how good you think your judgment/taste is relative to that of all the others who are trying.

The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset

Right, so if you had good judgment and a reasonable network, I think you could find a lot of the promising opportunities.

Someone would be like "I have a device that produces bright light at a low cost, and I need funding to manufacture it on a massive scale."

So you'd be like "Really? Let me see this device."

You'd inspect the device, see that it does in fact do the thing the inventor says it does, and then after further diligence on the business plan & team you'd invest.

I think this is roughly how to go about separating the real opportunities from the snake oil.

The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset

Thanks for this! Super interesting.

A question I often have about the index-fund approach: if we were in a past historical moment, wouldn't VC-style investment on moonshots perform better than index investing?

e.g. if we were in 1910, wouldn't it be better to invest in a portfolio of moonshots that included Ford and Edison, rather than in a broad market index? (Most of the moonshots would fail but Ford and/or Edison would bring in massively outsized returns)

[Link] "Where are all the successful rationalists?"

I'm reminded of Romeo's comment about rationality attracting "the walking wounded" on a similar post from a couple years back.

I actually think rationality is doing pretty good all things considered, though I definitely resonate with Applied Divinity Studies' viewpoint. Tsuyoku Naritai!

Five New EA Charities with High Potential for Impact

This is awesome!

Has Charity Entrepreneurship looked into Wren? https://projectwren.com

(Monthly subscription service for counterfactually-adjusted carbon offsets via reforestation etc.)

Avoiding Munich's Mistakes: Advice for CEA and Local Groups

Agree that the Blues can't cancel Trump. Note that being affiliated with Red Tribe isn't sufficient to avoid cancellation (though it probably helps) – see Petraeus, see the Republicans on these lists: 1, 2

Jordan Peterson seems basically impossible to cancel due to a combination of his shamelessness & his virtue (he isn't really Blue Tribe though). Same for Joe Rogan and Tyler Cowen.

Avoiding Munich's Mistakes: Advice for CEA and Local Groups

Trump demonstrates that thoroughgoing shamelessness effectively wards off cancellation, at least in the short run.

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