Thanks for this post! It's an interesting perspective on some factors that might explain the coup. I'd just like to add a couple of things worth considering, based on what I know. I'm not very certain about how these factors interact with what you've written above.
(a) Personalities. A lot of the military's decisions seem to stem from the personality and ambition of the top leader at the time. The military leader who initiated the shift to democratization in 2009/2010, Than Shwe, was sort of a wildcard and even military insiders were a little taken ab... (read more)
Hi David, thanks for your comment! The source you've linked looks really interesting and relevant. I'd be happy to speak to you sometime next week. Could you book a slot here? https://calendly.com/mss74/30min
Thank you for your comment and this reference! I wasn't aware of this group. I've edited the post to include them!!
No worries, glad it was useful. Thought I would update that we've put all that information into a website with somewhat regularly updated summaries of the pandemic responses in the various Southeast Asian countries: www.regionalrelief.org
Thank you for laying out your thinking on this topic! Was hoping to find something like this. Since you mentioned Southeast Asia I thought to link to something I've been working on - a compilation of Southeast Asian charities/organisations working on COVID Relief. https://docs.google.com/document/d/137XQpOwjPIcVhV1oufK83zHB64SKMAXtFg9YjPYe76s/edit
Some caveats: Not sure how interesting it would be, it's been quite a challenge to find these charities/orgs as is, and I have not had the bandwidth to evaluate them systematically. I've also only ... (read more)