All of peter_janicki's Comments + Replies

Maybe simply add a question, like for a school essay:

“Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime.” If this were true, how many decades ago do you think would extreme poverty ended worldwide?

It´s no direct "kill", still:

Dear Lord, I know some billion people are hard working yet still can´t afford enough food or water. Please, please, please: Let this be a problem, which can be easily solved by a good teacher. I don´t want poverty to be a money-problem. I mean, if that´d be the case, I would still keep my money, I wouldn´t change my behaviour, but I´d feel bad about it. So nothing would change, except me feeling bad. As you are a good lord, you sure don´t want that, right? - Oh, and please: These people are waiting for this good teacher for some decades now. Would you ask Santa if he could give him a lift? 

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime - if he can afford a fishing rod.

Hej, yeah, living healthy only a decade longer is no sexy longterminst inifinite-live cause ;-) 

Still. I recently stumbled over an small article in the New Scientist. As I had to make most calculations myself and ended saying, that humankind could increase their healthy lifespan by years, even by a decade - I´m happy to see, that others came to the same conclusions. 

Here is the Link: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2307510-cutting-down-meat-and-dairy-could-help-you-live-up-to-a-decade-longer/

Best wishes and stay healthy! 

We have someone doing some of our household-work (cleaning, some ironing, folding clothes, etc) for us. It‘s only 6 hours a month for her. We „save“ rather 10 hours - she‘s faster. Even with less money, I would still love to pay her a good wage, because it really saves some time.

Thx for commenting. I have to agree with you and disagree somewhat with my earlier comment. (#placebo). Actually placebo-effects are fine and if a placebo helps people: Great! 

And yes, getting a specific treatment effect + the placebo-effect is better (and more like in real life), than getting no treatment at all. 

Please don´t get me wrong. I do not like the research from strongminds for the above mentioned reasons (I am sure nobody got me wrong on this). And for some other reasons. But that does mean, that their therapy-work is bad or inefficient. Even if they overestimate their effects by a factor of 4 (it might be 20, it might be 2 - I just made those numbers up) it would still be very valuable work.

2
PhantoMinecrafter
2y
I think that somewhere there is "placebo's effect" involved. People may think something is helpful but it is not.  Just recently have read the https://www.health.harvard.edu/mental-health/the-power-of-the-placebo-effect article about it. A bit shocked to be honest P.S. I do not want to offend anybody. 

They did not have a placebo-receiving control group. For example some kind of unstructured talking-group etc. Ideally an intervention known as „useless“ but sounding plausible. So we do not know, which effects are due to regression to the middle, social desirable answers etc. This is basically enough to make their research rather useless. And proper control groups are common for quiete a while.

No „real“ evaluation of the results. Only depending on what their patients said, but not checking, if this is correct (children going to school more often…). Not eve... (read more)

8
Tsunayoshi
2y
All the other points you mentioned seem very relevant, but I somewhat disagree with the importance of a placebo control group, when it comes to estimating counterfactual impact. If the control group is assigned to standard of care, they will know they are receiving no treatment and thus not experience any placebo effects (but unlike you write, regression-to-the-mean is still expected in that group), while the treatment group experiences placebo+"real effect from treatment". This makes it difficult to do causal attribution (placebo vs treatment), but otoh it is exactly  what happens in real life when the intervention is rolled out!  If there is no group psychotherapy, the would-be patients receive standard of care, so they will not experience the placebo effect either. Thus a non-placebo design is estimating precisely what we are considering doing in real life: give an intervention to people, who will know that they are being treated and who would just have received standard of care (in the context of Uganda, this presumably means receiving nothing?).   Ofc, there are issues with blinding the evaluators; whether StrongMinds has done so is unclear to me. All of your other points seem fairly strong though.
1
peter_janicki
2y
Please don´t get me wrong. I do not like the research from strongminds for the above mentioned reasons (I am sure nobody got me wrong on this). And for some other reasons. But that does mean, that their therapy-work is bad or inefficient. Even if they overestimate their effects by a factor of 4 (it might be 20, it might be 2 - I just made those numbers up) it would still be very valuable work.
4
Stefan_Schubert
2y
"Still: I thought it be good to make this comment right now, so people see my opinion." I think it would have been better to wait until you had time to give proper arguments for your views. I agree with Stephen that the above comment wasn't helpful or constructive.  

I recently looked into strongminds „research“ and their findings. I was extremely dissapointed by the low standards. It seemed like they simply wanted to make up super-good numbers. Their results are extremely unrealistic. Are there new results from proper research?

I'm interested in reading critiques of StrongMinds' research, but downvoted this comment because I didn't find it very helpful or constructive.  Would you mind saying a bit more about why you think their standards are low, and the evidence that led you to believe they are "making up" numbers?

I am writing on a post about "better/healthier diets" simply due to their effect on human health. I hope it will be out during the next weeks.  - I have to wait for some feedback by experts on this topic.  

this page/link below is in german, but we know, there are some german-speaking ea´s. it´s an article in an economic newspaper and it´s about the benefit of using lotteries for choosing supervisors/superiors and there seem to be quiet some benefits in some cases. (google translate does a sufficient job here). https://www.wiwo.de/erfolg/management/aleatorische-verfahren-befoerderung-per-zufall-wir-wuerfeln-einen-chef/26621916.html

my guess is: whether lotteries are great depends on the sample. if it´s tricky to make a good decision -> lotteries may be grea... (read more)

Sure. Malnutrition: eating the wrong things as a voluntary choice despite having alternatives. Undernourishment: one does not get enough food, f.e. because there is not enough/because one can‘t afford it. malnutrition seems to be a big problem in middle and high income countries. In low-income countries undernourishment would be a big problem. My post is only about eating the wrong stuff on a „voluntary“ basis. One can afford fruits and veggies, but f.e. still eats red meat, salty chips etc. And those 250 million DALYs they only account for eating the wrong stuff (but not because of scarcity). At least if all those numbers are correct.

Thx for commenting. I am not sure, whether I got your point. If you are writing about nutrition-programs - do you mean getting people specific foods or informing them? As to my experience in germany there is no powerful organization or lobby -group trying to promote better nutrition because of the impressive health effects/reduced costs etc.

Mostly agreeing with this article. Thx. I‘d be hoping, that high schoolers (make better choices on what to study) will find the ea-groups at university faster, if they know about ea already. But even if that „fails“, it‘s not only about “becoming ea“ or not. It‘s not binary. If people don‘t get involved in ea-stuff... but agree to only one concept more (like cause neutrality /animals are capable of suffering, so that should matter too / counterfactual thinking in making career choices / the fact, that donations can have different impacts etc. (maybe even spreading those ideas)) - then it might be worth the time. Thx for the article.

Sorry, this is just a general comment. And it is only an opinion. I don‘t like the idea of profit-orientated prisons. The aim of a reform might be „good prisons“, „good treatment“, but that‘s not where the money is/get‘s generated? Low reoffending rates, espacially for crimes like murder, sexual assault, etc. are „producing“ the profit. I am afraid, people will find cheaper (but not necessarily better ways) to make the profit. For example: if some of my clients ever stands in court again: I will pay them a really good lawyer: I loose money, if they get con

... (read more)
1
JohannWolfgang
4y
Another perverse incentive: campaign for making more offenses punishable by prison sentences.
2
FCCC
4y
Yep, those perverse incentives that you identified are all good criticisms. If there's a theoretical model that says why a system will work, the real-world failure points of that system will be the assumptions of its model. The assumptions can be made to be true with the right regulations. My model assumes that prisons will act lawfully, which I think they will under the right punishments (since there's always a possibility of being caught). I knew about the prison's incentive to murder high-risk inmates, but I didn't consider the others you mentioned. Maybe some activities should be illegal, such as providing inmates with lawyers, but I'd wait and see how that plays out in the real world before banning it. There's one big problem that you missed: under-reporting of crime (e.g. drug use, rape) within prison (remember prisons have to pay the government for each crime after the auction). To prevent under-reporting, I'd consider mandating that each prison puts microphones and cameras in every room. The recordings could be accessed by government auditors at any time. I think you'd agree that the main dangers lie with high-risk inmates. To avoid that issue (at least until you have more data on how the system actually functions), you could prevent negative bids from going over a certain size (i.e. you can't bid less than −x dollars). The remaining inmates, whose contracts aren't bid on, would go to public prisons. The bid restrictions could be loosened as we gain a better understanding of the system and impose better regulations. Public systems have common problems. It's hard to overthrow poorly performing incumbents: If I think I can run prisons better than the existing government, I have to overthrow the entire government in an election. The people in charge of prisons don't have the right incentives: If they could prevent a murder for 2 million dollars, they don't have access to that capital. And sure, they could run tests to see which rehabilitation measures work b

There is a lot of research done in forensic psychology/psychiatry as to which offenders have which rates of reoffending (and how that rate can be reduced). There are instruments like the HCR20, the Psychopathy Checklist, the SVR20, etc. In Germany there are nice statistics about which released groups do commit the same/different crimes with which rates of recidivism. I am pretty sure, other countries have comparable stats. The rates are well below 50%, but we only have some 80 persons out of a hundred thousand behind bars, in the united states that number

... (read more)
1
FCCC
4y
Ah, I think we've both made the same mistake (believing recidivism rates were similar across countries). It appears recidivism has quite a large range. "For all reported outcomes, a 2-year follow-up period was the most commonly used. The 2-year rearrest rates ranged from 26% (Singapore) to 60% (USA), two-year reconviction rates ranged from 20% (Norway) to 63% (Denmark), and two-year reimprisonment rates ranged from 14% (USA – Oregon) to 43% (Canada – Quebec, New Zealand) (see Table 3 for 2-year rates from included countries)." In any case, my argument doesn't hinge on what the true statistics are.

applause. thx for this highly interesting (and important) article.

while reading i thought about a lot of commenting, but you already considered most of these things…

still some minor comments:

as to narcissism (maybe (?) the least important "dark tetrad trait"): as for narcistic personality disorder, there is a reason why (some) of these people are trying to gain power. a huge lack of self-esteem etc. and some narcistic people are trying to fill this lack with a successful career etc., still it does not gets filled this way, so (some of th... (read more)

3
Tobias_Baumann
4y
Thanks for commenting! I agree that early detection in children is an interesting idea. If certain childhood behaviours can be shown to reliably predict malevolence, then this could be part of a manipulation-proof test. However, as you say, there are many pitfalls to be avoided. I am not well versed in the literature but my impression is that things like torturing animals, bullying, general violence, or callous-unemotional personality traits (as assessed by others) are somewhat predictive of malevolence. But the problem is that you'll probably also get many false positives from those indicators. Regarding environmental or developmental interventions, we write this in Appendix B: Perhaps improving parenting standards and childhood environments could actually be a fairly promising EA cause. For instance, early advocacy against hitting children may have been a pretty effective lever to make society more civilised and less violent in general.

as for question 21 (reduced donations due to recession):

i guess, we are all pretty sure: donations will go down. many people are loosing their jobs/ their income, some will get huge medical bills, … other people lost money in the stock market, others see their real estate or their pension savings loosing worth… i guess, that many people will “save” some money via donating less.

that might affect many valuable organizations/ employees of those organizations. their work might/will be disrupted.

i think it is a good idea to have a ... (read more)

hey there,

it seems to me, that there is a lot of confusion about anxiety as a (recurrent) short-symptom (which your app is targeting) and anxiety as a mental health disorder (coded via icd-10 or dsm-v). you are citing papers about anxiety as health disorders to proof that there is a huge need for targeting anxiety symptoms. sure there is an overlap, but still: that does not fit. (or am i wrong?) i am not even sure, if it´s a good way to use this tool against anxiety symptoms. taking a pain pill against each small short-term feeling of pain would (in the l... (read more)