All of RichardYannow's Comments + Replies

Copying what I posted in the LW thread: 
Sam has since tweeted "25) Last night I talked to a friend of mine. They published my messages. Those were not intended to be public, but I guess they are now."

His claims are hard to believe. Kelsey is very well-known as a journalist in EA circles. She says she interviewed him for a piece in May. Before Sam's tweet, she made a point of saying that she avoids secretly pulling "but I never said it would be off-the-record, you just asked for that" shenanigans. She confirmed the conversation with an email from her w... (read more)

She disputes the "friend" claim, and says they've never had any communication in any platform she can find, other than the aforementioned interview.

The tweet you linked to appears to have been deleted.

What do you have to do to have a friendly person's referral code work? Is it as simple as coordinating with a friend in the moment, or does the person need to have been a member for X time or something? Should groups of people making a trip to do this make sure they're all using each other's referral codes (except for one, since someone has to be the first person to join) to get an extra 1% in EV?

The claim that large EA donors are likely to return ≥15% annually, and plausibly 30%-100%, is incredibly optimistic. Why would we expect large EA donors to get so much higher returns on investment than everyone else, and why would such profitable opportunities still be funding-constrained? This is not a case where EA is aiming for something different from others; everyone is trying to maximize their monetary ROI with their investments.

4
Jonas V
2y
Markets are made efficient by really smart people with deep expertise. Many EAs fit that description, and have historically achieved such returns doing trades/investments with a solid argument and without taking crazy risks.  Examples include: crypto arbitrage opportunities like these (without exposure to crypto markets), the Covid short, early crypto investments (high-risk, but returns were often >100x, implying very favorable risk-adjusted returns), prediction markets, meat alternatives. Overall, most EA funders outperformed the market over the last 10 years, and they typically had pretty good arguments for their trades. But I get your skepticism and also find it hard to believe (and would also be skeptical of such claims without further justification). Also note that returns will get a lot lower once more capital is allocated in this way. It's easy to make such returns on $100 million, but really  (Made some edits)

Note that Scott himself has said he agrees the Libya intervention turned out poorly and is now no longer comfortable endorsing things similar interventions, see http://web.archive.org/web/20150731041537/https://slatestarscratchpad.tumblr.com/post/125060547081/how-have-your-political-positions-shifted-through

0
xccf
8y
Thanks for the link, I wasn't aware of that. Still disappointed to see an ad hominem argument. It's true that Matthews only included it as a throwaway sentence, but this is the kind of characterization that readers can latch on to... feels like within-EA movement disagreements should be kept above the ad hominem level. (Also in favor of engaging opponents in a classy way, but let's walk before we run.)

I think there's an error in your math. You're using log base 10 consistently in your article and the linked spreadsheet, but then you say the derivative of the function log(c)+k is 1/c. If you're using log base 10 throughout, the derivate is 1/(ln(10)*c). If you use log base e throughout, then each value you got for log_10(x) should be multiplied by ln(10) to get the value of ln(x). In either case, we end up with dollar amounts a bit over 2.3 times higher than your calculated values for the value of a marginal life in a pure aggregate utilitarian framework... (read more)

Tom, can you clarify what the relationship is between the EA Hub and the EA Forum (If anything)? It seems like those links point at different things.

1
number42
9y
To clarify a little more, they're totally separate codebases I believe.
0
Tom_Ash
9y
Whoops, wrong links. Corrected.