All of Tomer_Goloboy's Comments + Replies

  1. What are the odds of extinction from nuclear, AI, bio, climate change, etc.?
  2. His thoughts on the threat of "population collapse"?
  3. How work on existential risk compares to work on animal welfare and global poverty in expected value (is it 50% better? 100x better?)
  4. How does work on animal welfare and global poverty affect existential risk and the quality of the long-term future?
  5. Where do Nick Bostrom, Toby Ord, Eliezer Yudkowsky, etc. go wrong that leads them to believe in substantially higher levels of AI risk than you?
  6. What new E.A. projects would you like to s
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Do you still intend on donating a portion of your salary?

Yes: we've pledged to donate 30%, but will do 50% if we can still manage it

All Misercordia products are available globally ($8.00 shipping fee outside of the U.S. and Canada)! You can check out our newest E.A.-themed products here.

6
Vincent van der Holst
2y
You might want to look into setting up a EU version of the website that's linked to a EU based print on demand supplier. This will save shipping costs and delivery times substantially, 2 factors that are very important for consumers. 

Done. Thank you for the inspiration!

1
Anton Rodenhauser
2y
Wow, that was quick!

I'll try to set that up for sure!  In the meantime, you can follow us on Instagram @shop_misercordia  (https://www.instagram.com/shop_misercordia/). With regards to existential hope, I'm looking into some designs for utopian cities, as well.

Thank you so much!! 

You can buy them at misercordia.square.site! Thank you so much for all you've done!

It only took ~10 hours of work. I initially drew out the original design in pastel, and then scanned it and uploaded it to Figma, after which I edited it to my needs. The other one I paid a classmate $0.50 for the design and played with the filters on Figma to design the shirt.  All the shirt designs were then uploaded to CustomInk, which allows for print on demand to multiple addresses so I don't need to have any inventory. I originally tried to create the website on Wix.com, but it was too expensive for my needs. The current website is built on Squa... (read more)

4
Vincent van der Holst
2y
It's very normal to pay up to 2% for a transaction (even at scale), so I wouldn't worry about that. We're paying 1.8% on average on our Shopify and at massive scale that number will still be around 1%.  Looking forward to our talk today!

Yes! I made a silly error when writing out "Misericordia" on the original design, but I thought it sounded cooler, so I ran with it.  

I agree with ColdButtonIssues that luxury consumer goods may be a better direction in the long term. You might be well advised to run a for-profit business (perhaps dropshipping, or other money-making schemes, like buying cheap items at garage sales and upselling them on eBay, Facebook Marketplace, etc.) and use the profits to fund the start-up costs of a bigger business. I would guess that you could make ~$10,000 with 100-200 hours of work. 

I recently read "Zero to One: Notes on Startups and How to Build the Future" by Peter Thiel and "The Tipping Po... (read more)

6
Vincent van der Holst
2y
Luxury goods might be a good avenue, but in the long run we're hoping that many businesses are replaced by guiding producers, and the companies generating most profits mostly aren't luxury companies (perhaps with the exception of Apple). I think both can be successful in guided consumption.   I had/have the idea to sell extremely high priced items that were unique. My idea was to create the world's most expensive t-shirt (was thinking like 1 or 10 million USD) with a popular artist and donate 99% of that to charity. Seemed like that kind of thing would generate a lot of PR with the right artist and buyer.  I still think this might be worth pursuing, but if you want to move the broader public towards guided consumption I believe there's more to be gained in commodotized businesses that sell goods/services to millions. That's why we ended up trying to be a guided producer as a sustainable marketplace. I think I have an almost delusional faith that guided consumption (I call it profit for non-profit usually) will work and I've quit my job, bootstrapped a business and sunk quite a lot of my net worth and all of my time into pursuing it. I have a lot of skin in the game and certainly not going to give up any time soon.  The books you mention are ones that I've got recommended a lot and I'm trying to read them in the upcoming months, thanks for elaborating on some important concepts in the books!
4
Brad West
2y
Tomer: thank you for reading and the thoughtful response! I agree with you and ColdButtonIssues that luxury goods, allowing for virtue signaling that could warrant the toleration of higher costs and thus higher margins. However, especially if we're talking about a long-term in which the general public is familiar with GC, it is unclear why popular profit destinations would not be used to compete in other consumer sectors. The structural advantage conferred by popular ownership is not offset by a corresponding disadvantage, and thus, where there is a meeting of the philanthropic will to create companies that serve causes and a consumer society that prefers the designated cause over a nameless shareholder GCs should tend to dominate. As I had stated in my paper, I anticipate that this advantage would be especially decisive in areas of few dimensions of product differentiation. I would be interested in thoughts as to what I might be missing in this analysis. I'd take you up on that offer regarding the books. It sounds like they have some insights I could definitely use. I would say that I have do have a pretty strong belief in Guided Consumption, though my unwavering faith would regard that this phenomenon will eventually become dominant moreso than in my own ability to personally usher it in. Given an insufficiently exploited means of a structural advantage, one of these decades, someone will find a way to effectively use ownership identity to get an edge over the traditional firms. Virtually any charitable cause is more popular than the competition: nameless, rich shareholders. My hope is that the Effective Altruism community can have influence inwhich causes prevail come the advent of the age of consumer power, because they are very thoughtful regarding how to do the most good. In any case, even if there was a low probability of my success, given the magnitude of good that would accompany a successful effort, I will try to tame anything in me that urges me to sto

Anecdotally, I would never have heard of transhumanism if not for the U.S. transhumanist party, even though they only got a few hundred votes in the presidential election.

My suggestion would be that more people interested in Effective Altruism infrastructure donate to Giving What We Can instead of the E.A. Infrastructure Fund or CEA Community Building Fund. A community organized around effective giving is 1) better for optics; 2) better for us; 3) anecdotally, I was inducted into E.A. through global poverty, and then later got into longtermism and animal welfare by extension. Without good infrastructure and a strong culture of effective giving, E.A. will cease to be an excited and exciting (and growing) community working to... (read more)

Also, I think that a book which you would really resonate with is Wisdom to Heal the Earth: Meditations and Teachings of the Rebbe, Rabbi Menachem M. Schneerson by Rabbi Tzvi Freeman. A lot of the teachings about the Messiah and the Messianic age start to make sense when viewed from a longtermism paradigm.

God bless,

Tomer

I just read this article, and I think your ideas are beautiful and should be spread further throughout the E.A. community.  Is there any way that this article could be rewritten to be more palatable to an E.A. audience, perhaps by removing quotes from the Bible and Qur'an, and changing the title to something like "The Singularity and Its Metaphysical Implications." I'll share with you a draft of what I'm thinking of. Love what you're doing man, keep at it!

2
Mahdi Complex
2y
Hi Tomer, I really appreciate the kind words! I think the piece turned out a little strange because I was trying to do too many things at once. I was trying to frame EA and the Singularity in terms that would lead religious people to take it seriously, while also making the largely atheistic EA crowd more appreciative of some compatibilist religious ideas. I just published a post that expounds a bit on some of the ideas I mention in this piece. I think that AGI might require us to dig a little deeper when it comes to governance and political philosophy. The framing of transformative AI as just another technology like electricity or nuclear power with little major implications on global governance and society seems wrong to me. And getting a proper understanding of the ideas that currently govern us and that motivate most people seems really underrated in EA.

There are several authors who are somewhat E.A.-aligned like Sam Harris, Steven Pinker, etc. who we should work on recruiting to write books from them in the future about E.A. Also, I would a verbal history of E.A. simply for the reason of, if it got optioned for movie rights, who would play Will Macaskill. I have my bets on Liam Hemsworth.

Someone who has contributed to Jewish thought in this area (i.e. our individual power to usher in a messianic age - similar to what many E.A.'s believe longtermist interventions (and neartermist interventions, to some extent)  can bring about - is The Rebbe,  Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, of blessed memory.  A great book on this (which I'm reading right now) is "Wisdom to Heal the Earth - Meditations and Teachings of the Lubavitcher Rebbe" by Tzvi Freeman. The focus on 'Tikkun Olam' also aligns with a lot of the progressive Jewish messaging I've seen in recent years anyways. 

I think this is definitely feasible. I was convinced by the ideas of Effective Altruism as early as age 12 and donated a significant portion of my Bar Mitzvah gifts to The Life You Can Save.

4
Tomer_Goloboy
2y
Someone who has contributed to Jewish thought in this area (i.e. our individual power to usher in a messianic age - similar to what many E.A.'s believe longtermist interventions (and neartermist interventions, to some extent)  can bring about - is The Rebbe,  Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, of blessed memory.  A great book on this (which I'm reading right now) is "Wisdom to Heal the Earth - Meditations and Teachings of the Lubavitcher Rebbe" by Tzvi Freeman. The focus on 'Tikkun Olam' also aligns with a lot of the progressive Jewish messaging I've seen in recent years anyways. 

Could you explain what "Embodied virtue ethics and neo-Taoism as credible alternatives to consequentialism that deserve seats in the moral congress" would mean for cause prioritization in E.A.? I'm not familiar with either of those concepts.

Hi, I'm Tomer Goloboy (mathgeek2008@gmail.com). I'm working on writing a children's book teaching basic altruist principles. I'd love to join Slack to get suggestions from and network with other EA-aligned creatives! Huge thanks to Jeroen_W for creating this channel!