Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks
Adapted from Forrest Landry's essay.
A list of biases customized for application
to the AGI Safety question.
This sequence considers some of the
well known types of psychological bias
that will likely/potentially affect
any pending or past evaluative efforts
of the real probability and possibility
of various categories of extinction risk.
Insofar as it is important
in any effort intended to obtain
an actual, real, correct, and
appropriate/complete risk assessment
in real choices being made,
it is therefore also important
to know, understand, and counteract
the effects associated with each
type of bias currently identified.
That this is particularly the case
in situations where there are
extreme levels of private gains
at stake, either in the form of:
- direct dollars (billions); or;
- in the level of prestige/status
(hundreds of career scientists).