Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks

Adapted from Forrest Landry's essay.

  A list of biases customized for application
  to the AGI Safety question.

  This sequence considers some of the
  well known types of psychological bias
  that will likely/potentially affect
  any pending or past evaluative efforts
  of the real probability and possibility
  of various categories of extinction risk.

  Insofar as it is important
  in any effort intended to obtain
  an actual, real, correct, and 
  appropriate/complete risk assessment
  in real choices being made,
  it is therefore also important
  to know, understand, and counteract
  the effects associated with each
  type of bias currently identified.

  That this is particularly the case
  in situations where there are
  extreme levels of private gains
  at stake, either in the form of:

  • direct dollars (billions); or;
  • in the level of prestige/status
    (hundreds of career scientists).