AI Use Note: Main body text entirely human written. Claude (Opus 4.8) helped develop models of animal life histories in the appendix.
Cross-posted from Good Structures.
Executive Summary
* Animal advocates sometimes make claims like “there are X of this animal...
Summary
Back in November 2023 I posted here to launch Spiro and raise our first $198k. Two and a half years later this is an update and a fundraiser for the next step.
The short version: we've now reached over-5,900 people with TB preventive medicine, including over 3,000 children under five years old. Our early results have held up well an...
Adapted from my Substack, Funding Anthropalypse.
Short version: if you want a share of the coming Anthropic and OpenAI windfall - the $37bn+ that could be in play next year - the way in is to become 'legibly excellent', so the evaluators and donors that frontier lab staff already trust point them to yo...
Not sure if this is the best forum for feedback, so please direct me elsewhere and happy to delete my comment if not.
A few suggestions on the explanation of EV. While the examples are clear, I found the definition of expected value confusing.
It is written as "expected value = likelihood of option x value of option", and "The expected value is the probability multiplied by the value of each outcome".
I read this as: E[X]=xP(x), which doesn't capture the need to sum across outcomes.
Pitched at the same level of technicality, I think a clearer definition is: "The expected value of an uncertain decision is the sum across all outcomes of the value of each outcome multiplied by its probability."
Or some other wording that captures that this is a weighted average. This properly implies the necessary summation across outcomes: E[X]=∑xP(x).
It might also be worth:
Hi John, your revised version of definition helps me greatly.