All of Aleks_K's Comments + Replies

Charitable organisations generally do due diligence on large donors and will most likely do this in-house in most cases (perhaps with some external support) - very large organisations (eg Universities) will usually have a specialised in-house team independent from the rest of the operations to do this. It is also likely that at least the larger EA organisations did do due diligence on donations from Sam/FTX, they just decided on balance that it's fine to take the donation.

Answer by Aleks_KApr 16, 202419
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The answer to 1) is very likely yes as this was the case at previous EAG events in the UK. Whatever rules there are for newbuilds obviously a) don't apply to existing buildings (and the venue is not a new built) b) don't have any influence on how you use or label bathrooms at private events (unless you are discriminating or something which I assume CEA isn't planning to do).

While I would say $100mn is probably too high a bar, buying Whytham Abbey wasn't really $20mn expenditure as they'll sell it and get most of this back. So the actual expenditure (cost related to the transaction, running costs, overhead, gain/loss, not including any reputational cost) of the purchase is probably between $1mn and $4mn (depending on what they manage to sell it for).

In the UK, doing this would probably be counted as 'trading' and be subject to corporation tax, there is a common workaround, though, by creating a trading subsidiary that donates to the charity (allowing them to reduce their corporate tax burden). This setup might or might not be suitable for this specific occasion, and there are of course additional efforts involved in creating such a setup that might or might not be worth it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I guess the main conclusion of this is: You can run an event much cheaper of you find an organisation that has a good event space and collaborates with you, so they charge the 'internal' rather than the commercial rate.

Is this just a guess or do you have information on the actual costs of the event? (Just from their website, they seem to have various sponsors who are likely covering a substantial amount of the costs, and yes, their venue costs might be very low (or even close to zero) because Harvard/MIT are likely not charging them commercial rates, but that doesn't give any info of the actual costs and why they would be lower than EAG costs.)

1
NEXP
6mo
Yes I know the exact costs (from a few years ago), happy to DM. They're charged the rate for internal use of the venue, but "internal" effectively means "there is a formal group at Harvard that plays an organizing role in your event"

These academic conferences likely take place at universities which likely won't have any minimum spend requirements (at least for internal events).

Sure, I'm not objecting to policing language in general (there are certainly types of language that are inappropriate) or you making a specific suggestion of (gentle) language policying. (I just disagree with your specific suggestion on this - and I assume others do as well - and my point is that connecting it with you other suggestion - that I think more people will agree with - is suboptimal.)

2
NunoSempere
1y
At the risk of repeating myself, I think that there is an important point here where most potential bet offers are going to be people ambiguously using the word "I'd bet" in a somewhat metaphorical world. And in that state of the world, I'm not going to go around trying to accept other people's potential bet offers, because most of the time people will chicken out. This makes the signal of using "I'd bet" much weaker, meaning that there aren't any downsides to using it metaphorically, which leads to a downward spiral where it loses the signal. The alternative would be to have an unambiguous way of saying that you are willing to put money behind your belief. Having a norm of using "I'd bet" non-metaphorically would be one such way, but I'm open to others.

This post somehow connects two  things for (in my opinion) no good reason:

  • Trying to get people to actually bet (which I think is probably a good thing)
  • Trying to police people's language by asking them to not use 'I bet' in a non-literal sense (which I think is a bad thing)

I don't really understand why you think the latter is necessary to achieve the former.

2
NunoSempere
1y
There are various levels of "policing", ranging from gentle suggestions (this post), occasional nudging, public shaming, coerced speech through some technical tweak on the EA forum, public flogging, or locking someone away and throwing away the key. I think the lower levels are fine. The forum already has rules, some of them could refer to epistemics. "Be kind, stay on topic, be honest, offer an operationalization and stakes if you are offering a bet"

As an affiliate, though, not as an employee. (And they seem to have lots of affiliates, so not clear what this actually means.)

5
HaydnBelfield
1y
He listed GovAI on this (very good!) post too: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hApNw5f7uG8RXxGS/the-open-agency-model Yeah dunno exactly what the nature of his relationship/link

While this is a data point that shows that in principle it's currently possible to currently work with the University, GPI has quite a different strategy compared to FHI that aligns significantly more with traditional academia, so it doesn't necessarily prove that it would be currently possible for FHI. 

However, I think a stronger existence proof for it being possible to work with the University is that FHI managed to do that in some way reasonably for at least 10+ years. (They were established in 2005) - for comparison, GPI is only 5 years old. 

4
Peter Wildeford
1y
Thanks - that's a good point.

Thanks for pointing out the FHI/GPI mistake, I've corrected that.

I also thought Drexler was still at FHI, but I checked and this doesn't seem to be the case: He's not mentioned  on the team page and his website at FHI has been taken down.

It seems that your comment is mainly about successes  by Bostrom in the (medium to more distant) past, while the post is about experience in the more recent past and expectations for the future. I would say that the expectations for the future are what is relevant to evaluate whether it's a good thing or not for Bostrom to step down as Director (?)

Just mentioning some examples:

Bostrom has succeeded at this, and the group of people (especially the early FHI cast including Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Andrew Snyder Beattie, Owain Evans, and Stuart Arm

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5
Peter Wildeford
1y
Great points. ~ Just two quick nitpicks: I think you mean "FHI" not "GPI". And I think Drexler is still at FHI in addition to Sandberg. But you're right that ASB, Owain, and Stuart Armstrong have left FHI.

If someone attends the event as a journalist, why not have their lanyard show that they are a journalist? This seems like it's a very easy thing to do and something like this is probably pretty standard at large events that are not fully public(?) This would probably solve some of the issues, as people know who they are talking to (and eg organisers of private afterparties could just not let journalists in if they don't want them at their party).

Thanks for writing this post. I strongly agree with the need for more concrete proposals for reform rather than the more broad and more wide ranging (and more controversial) ones raised at other places.

That being said, I'm slightly confused what your proposal here is. It feels like mainly it's "let's think about more concrete proposals?". This feels to me a little bit like the famous "this is an important problems and these are good idea, let's create a committee to think about it ..." approach.

3
Jason
1y
Thanks for reading and commenting! The post is intended to be about incentives, information discovery, and theory of change. The core idea is that the community should fund people to develop more concrete proposals, because the current incentive structure doesn't create enough incentives for people to do that for free. From there, I tried to address how we could maximize the chances that the concrete proposals were those that had community support, would maximize information gain, and tied into a viable theory of change. Part of that information discovery was seeing whether people would be willing to fund reform work even modestly. Throwing $25-$50 into a group pot would be a slightly costly way to demonstrate interest. I don't see better ways of discovering the level and depth of community support: I'm concerned about just polling people at the current stage; there are many ideas that sound good at the three-sentence stage but fall apart if you try to sketch them out. And there are many people who have priors against reform that won't update on a three-sentence sketch. I cut some material on theory of change, which may have been a mistake in retrospect. You're right that the theory of change is a bit incremental . . . but I am not sure what the better process would be. I was hoping that if someone had a better one, it would come out in the comments. Many reform-minded posts haven't described how we get from three-line proposal to real-world effects at all.  One possibility is that the powers-that-be would take everyone's three-line proposals, invest time into developing them all, evaluate the developed proposals, and then figure out how to implement them. I don't think that is a realistic theory of change; the powers-that-be are handling the largest financial, legal, and reputational crisis in the history of EA and so are rather bandwidth-constrained. Moreover, leadership bandwidth will always be constrained, and it's reasonable for leadership not to want to dev

Might be worth noting that OpenPhil is kind of split up in this way already and has two equal co-CEOs for the two areas.

(And I think this at least partially contradicts your point "Longtermists control the flow of money" as the main funding org in EA is split between longtermist and non-longtermist funding with neither of the parts controlling the other.)

I disagree with the concern: In the proposed solution, we are not going to zero community posts, they are just at a different tab or place at the frontpage but clearly accessible. I would actually be in favour of this change even without any of the concerns regarding 'negativity' from community post, it's a minor change to make the forum better readable!

Because I do want to read community posts sometimes and sometimes I might want to read other posts and having two taps that I can choose from depending on which type of post I want to read is a great way to do that.

What route the money takes (not in each individual case and in detail but in the high level) is clearly a question senior leadership should know and sign off, in particular in an organisation as small (in terms of number of staff) as the FTX Foundation. (I don't even know if they had any ops  staff, there is no-one listed here.)

A UK charity can put rules in their governing documents on how to remove trustees. I don't think EVFs governing documents are public, so we probably don't know. 

Recusing themselves from FTX decision-making is significantly weaker than being on leave of absence. The latter implies that they are still part of decision-making for non-FTX related issues which I assume exist. (And technically recusing from decision-making also doesn't mean recusing from discussion, so they could have still been involved in discussions regarding FTX, though I'd assume that they also recused themselves from that). I think it's a significant difference.

I think there are various reasons for not having such a list public:

  • It will (literally) create a first tier, second tier, etc of organisations in the effective altruism community, which feels bad/confusing.
  • People will associate the organisation the grant is given to with the tier, while it was actually that specific grant that was evaluated.
  • The information that are provided publicly for a given grant are likely only a small subset of the information that was used to decide the tier, but people just looking through the list won't know or acknowledge that, l
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8
weeatquince
1y
Yeah, I somewhat agree this would be a challenge, and there is a trade off between the time needed to do this well and carefully (as it would need to be done well and carefully) and other things that could be done. I think it would surprise a lot if the various issues were insurmountable. I am not an expert in how to publish public evaluations of organisations without upsetting those organisations or misleading people but connected orgs like GiveWell do this frequently enough and must have learnt a thing or two about it in the past few years. To take one the concerns you raise: if you are worried about people reading too much into the list and judging the organisations who requested the grants rather than specific grants you could publish the list in a pseudoanonymised way where you remove names of organisations and exact amounts of funding – sure people could connect the dots but it would help prevent misunderstanding and make it clearer judgement is for grants not organisations.   Anyway to answer your questions: * On creating new projects – it is  easier for the Charity Entrepreneurship research team to know how to asses funding availability and the bar to beat for global health projects than for biosecurity projects. Sure we can look at where OpenPhil have given but there is no detail there. It is hard to know how much they base their decisions on different factors such as the trusted-ness of the people running the project versus some bar of expected effectiveness versus something else. Ultimately this can make us more hesitant to try and start new organisations that would be aiming to get funding from OpenPhil's longtermist teams than  we are to start new organisations that would be aiming to get funding from GiveWell (or other very transparent organisations).  This uncertainty about future funding is also a barrier we see in potential entrepreneurs and more clarity feels useful * On other funders could fill gaps that they believe OpenPhil has missed – I
6
Jason
1y
And without minimizing all the effort that went into the list, it was compiled fairly quickly with a specific purpose in mind. For example, I'd expect OP to devote more of the limited time available to classifying grants near where it expected the new bars to be. For example, ensuring high accuracy in tier 1 vs 2 vs 3 (maybe even vs. high 4) probably wasn't at the top of the priority list. So it would probably be safer to view the determined tiers as +/- 1 tier, which significantly limits usefulness. Also, unless OP released a ranked list, we wouldnt know where in a tier the grant fell. My guess is that there isn't that much difference in absolute quality between the bottom of tier 4 and the top of tier 5, and that line could move based on market conditions, cause area allocation, etc. I do think that at least grantees should be told.

I think it is also worth checking what the reason was why the inquiries where opened and how this correlates with the outcomes. I only looked at a few but lots of them starts with quite obvious wrongdoings or mistakes by the trustees already and these are of course much more likely to end negatively.

6
Jason
1y
Agreed. My guess is that (a) the bar for opening a statutory inquiry of a larger charity like EVF is practically lower than for the significantly smaller charities who make up most of the reports; and (b) the CC will hold EVF's trustees to a higher standard than significantly smaller charities. I think both would be appropriate -- (a) as a matter of enforcement priorities, and (b) because I think the minimum acceptable level of performance should rise as charities have more resources. If my guesses are correct, they would limit the predictive usefulness of past published outcomes.

"Multinational" corporations are usually not actually multinational in the sense of having independent entities in different countries, they generally have one main entity (with one CEO) based  in one country that owns various subentities in other countries (the details of this are often of course quite complicated). This is different for EVF which has two independent entities. 

Answer by Aleks_KJan 27, 20237
1
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Firstly, from the plot that you link (at least the one on the right) there actually seems to be a clear jump (total in 2017 is 300M from 150M the year before).

Secondly, I think the main reason is that Open Philanthropy didn't just come into existence out of nothing, they started a partnership with GiveWell in 2014 (as the Wikipedia article says as well) and Good Ventures have already been giving through that, so it's not that suddenly a new funder was there in 2017, it's that a  funder has been easing in over a long time and the founding of Open Philanthropy as an organisation was just one step in this process.

1
Hamish McDoodles
1y
Cool, yep. This checks out. Thanks!

Another possible reason: He (and EA and longtermism) are not actually that interesting for most people.

I think this could have been avoided if more EA orgs, including FHI, had some kind of PR function instead of leaving all the heavy lifting to CEA. I've said as much here.

Bostrom works for Oxford University who have a PR department. From his statement is seems unlikely to me, though that he asked them (or any other PR experts) for advice.

I think the main issue with this is that this creates some kind of official 'membership' of EA which comes with tonnes of issues. (How do you decide who gets in? Who decides and how that/if people get thrown out? (Would SBF still in this?) Is there a transparent process for this? What kind of obligations do people part of it have (in terms of keeping conversations private for example)? Can you leave voluntarily and are there any repercussions if you do?, ...)

3
Ozzie Gooen
1y
I agree that overseeing permissions would be annoying to do, that's the main thing I'm recommending we eventually have someone paid to do. I'd note that: * Lots of similar decisions are already being made. EAGs, Leadership Forums, lots of private Slacks, regional coworking offices, and more.  * I can't imagine anyone reasonable who would keep SBF in, post-scandal. * There could be a transparent process. I'd encourage starting with something simple, like, "Are you employed by one of these N orgs, or have you met one of these other 3 criteria?" * "Can you leave voluntarily and are there any repercussions if you do" -> I think generally, you could just ignore it. Think of a Slack and similar that you could log into if you want, or could just ignore.

3. can be answered from publicly available information: It's not the latest version. On https://ftx.tghp.co.uk/our-grants/ it says "last updated June 2022", while the latest version of the actual website states to have been updated in September (and also has a higher overall grant amount).

0
vipulnaik
1y
Thanks, I've updated my post reflecting this and citing your answer.

When the building (it's not a castle) was bought (in early 2021), the name of the organisation that bought it was CEA. The change at some point after that to Effective Ventures. It's unclear how much governance-wise a separate 'umbrella CEA' existed to a 'core CEA' at the point of the purchase, but even now, CEA does not seem to have a board separate from Effective Ventures, and it's ultimately the same people that hare fully responsible and it's legally the same organisation that people donated to (unclear what kind of restrictions could put on their dona... (read more)

Answer by Aleks_KDec 13, 202211
1
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GivingWhatWeCan has what they call the Further Pledge. This is mainly about income rather than wealth but seems customisable, so might be worth looking into it and contacting them.

5
Luke Freeman
1y
Yeah, a version of this is covered by the Further Pledge. If you pledge to live on no more than $X (adjusted for purchasing power) then any wealth accumulated is allocated for giving. We are also exploring a wealth pledge right now if you’d like to get in touch but I think it is less matched to what you have in mind. Further Pledges are much more customised to the individual.

I'd also guess that this is the case, but it helps create the confusion that CEA is involved.

This might be because  Owen is (at least according to CEA's website) part of CEA's 'team' as a strategic advisor and trustee of CEA UK. It's not obvious (at least not obvious enough to avoid confusion) in which capacity Owen is speaking here and assuming that's in relation to one of his roles at CEA is not that farfetched (even if it might not be correct).

Also, CEA is not distinct from EV, they are a project/brand of EV, but legally fully part of it. (There is no such thing as a 'fiscal sponsor' in UK law.)  It's unclear to me how much CEA have their own governance structure.

2
Jeff Kaufman
1y
While Owen's page does say "trustee of CEA UK" I'm pretty sure it should say "trustee of EVF". I've written to EVF to point this out (along with some other places that need fixing)

Most of the costs of running conferences don't come from the cost of the (pure real estate) costs of the property. (You'd still incur lots of the $2,000 if you run an event at Wytham Abbey, the only bits that you aren't paying for are the pure capital costs for the property, part of the profit margin and costs for times the venue is otherwise empty.)

What I'm wondering is why the benifactor gave the money for the building to EV rather than buying the building themselves and just allow EV to use it for free. This would likely have avoided all the optics issues and I guess would have had some other advantages.

2
RobertJones
1y
Apart from other considerations, the benefactor would have been liable for c£750k of SDLT, for which EVF can claim a charitable exemption.
3
Jason
1y
Without knowing who the benefactor was, the possibility of unfavorable tax treatment for the buy-and-donate-a-lease approach comes to mind.

Your analasis ignores that the prices you quote contain a lot more than the pure real estate costs, but also running costs, that Wytham Abbey of course would also have to incure, such as:

  • Mainenance, renovations, etc (this can be quite a lot for an old and listed building)
  • Utilities, etc. (Again, this is a large old space not built to modern standards and this is probably quite high)
  • Costs for IT equipment that needs to be regularly replaced, furniture that needs to be replace ocasionally, any kind of office supplies etc provided
  • Council tax
  • Costs for cle
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Seems quite implausible to me that this would have happened and unclear if it would have been good. (Assuming "larger EA community" implies more than private conversations between a few people. )

Are you talking about the board of the FTX Future Fund or about the team working there? Because the board solely consisted of FTX/Almeda people

1[anonymous]1y
[deleted]

The EA community as a whole doesn't have any rights as it's not a legal person.  Grant receivers don't have legal rights to get any information on grant providers, but it is common to do some kind of due diligence, the only thing they can do is not accept grants if they don't get information (and this happens sometimes). The same is true for investors in private companies, by the way, there is no obligation to provide information, but they of course they just won't invest if they don't get the information they need.

If you are talking about moral rights instead of legal rights this is of course a very different thing and highly debatable.

Thanks for this take. This is one of the best takes on the issue I've read on here. I particularly agree with the point that 'investing' into FTX has significantly more risk for the EA community than for the institutional investors that did invest. One small thing to add on this point is that - while there were a group of investors that did invest in FTX - there were likely also various potential investors that decided not to invest after some due diligence, we just don't know of them.

Okay, I think that's fair. I would have preferred, though, if they would have been more transparent about this to the people the FTX Foundation had been supporting.

The assets of the Good Ventures Foundation (who Open Phil is recommending their grants to) are a matter of public record (albeit delayed). They had more than $3bn in June 2020.

3
Guy Raveh
1y
GV is basically controlled by Moskovitz and Tuna, who are on its board. This is a much better situation than SBF's - the money here is committed to charity and can't just be taken for other goals - but it still has the problem of "the course of EA is almost entirely decided by two wealthy individuals".

I mean the short answer to this is very simple: Because the people funding the foundation didn't want to (or couldn't) put their money into the foundation.

The more interesting question is why the FTX Foundation team were happy with this setup. It would be interesting to hear from them on this.

They didn't exactly have a lot of leverage here, so I wouldn't assume they were necessarily "happy." The alternative was probably declining to serve as Foundation staff. Although there are some circumstances under which sservice would be unwise -- such as a concern that the money was procured by fraud -- I am not convinced that the funders' choice to fund on an pay-go basis rather than depositing several billion dollars up front is one of them.

I agree this would be very useful information. In theory, the FTX Future Fund team should know this information but they probably are not allowed to share it.

Of course, someone could try to collect this information by contacting all named FTX Future Fund grantees and it might be worth the effort to try to do this. (Though it's unclear who might be best suited to do that, given that they'd have to be trusted enough by all grantees for them to share their individual details with them.) Maybe the largest recipients (I think these are CEA and Longview) could start by stating how much they received. 

I think this (the fact that there is no endowment) was (or at least should have been) pretty well-known in the EA community from the point in time that the FTX Future Fund started to pay grants, as these came from all kinds of sources, but not from an endowed foundation.  And it obviously would have been known to the people working for FTX Foundation from when they started working there.

(And I would guess one reason that it didn't raise more alarm bells for lots of people in the EA community that learned about this, is probably that they put high trust in the people working for FTX Foundation.)

2
ZekeFaux
1y
How much did the Future Fund actually pay out? The website lists $160 million in committed grants.

Were they? I had the impression that there was an (at least technically) independent organisation, FTX Foundation or FTX Philanthropy, that employed the FTX Future Found team. But of course this might very well be wrong. At least Will MacAskill, though, wasn't an employee of FTX, he described his position as 'unpaid advisor' and his formal roles include being a Professor at Oxford University, trustee of CEA and Director of the Forethought Foundation.

I don't really understand the specific situation your describing, and this is not legal advice, but I think in general one can say that if how much money "your org" has (wherever they get it from) shouldn't really influence the size or validity of a hypothetical clawback claim, but it of course might influence if the claim is persued and how much money the claimer might actually be able to get from "your org".

Just noting that the second question is addressed in the document they created.

4
Guy Raveh
1y
Thanks, I now read it. I understand it somewhat better but have no idea what to expect in practice.

It's not a meme, it's actually a screenshot from a video.  It seems more  likely to me, though, that he is vegan and they were just using a fridge that other people use as well, because if he weren't vegan and this is his fridge, they probably would just have removed the eggs.

2
Yitz
1y
this seems probable to me, thanks for sharing a good-faith explanation
4
Lin BL
1y
I would call the way it has been posted on Twitter a meme, and the main point was on how much to update not on the format (meme or video) this information was presented in! For which I think we are in agreement

Surely it's the people working for the FTX Foundation who were the connection between FTX and EA.

1
Ozzie Gooen
1y
These people were employed directly by FTX. They weren't well positioned to oversee FTX. (You can't oversee the group that pays you.) It's possible that the individuals did very substantial due diligence before joining (not "should I join this org" due diligence, but "should we decide for all of EA that FTX should be trusted" due diligence), then thought that board members or other groups would oversee FTX. I think they could have been proponents for some parts of this, but not the entire thing. 
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