All of andyljones's Comments + Replies

I'm not a huge fan of this option because it doesn't feel like my comparative advantage and I don't like (and am not good at) splitting my focus like this.

If EA is vetting-constrained, then plausibly even though it doesn't feel like my comparative advantage, it's useful to the community if I spend time vetting things. But my impression from my brief stint in EA funds was that the funds felt more good-opportunity-constrained than vetting-constrained, and I don't feel as well-positioned to address that bottleneck.

I'm in a similar position and I largely agree... (read more)

What'd you feel your comparative advantage is versus other organisations in this space? In particular, the Long-Term Future Fund and Survival & Flourishing?

Is that tax advice published anywhere? I'd assumed any grants I received in the UK would be treated as regular income, and if that's not the case it's a pleasant surprise!

Thanks very much for figuring that out! I've retracted my original comment; my estimate of the background rate is now 30-40%ish - I think the various perturbations'll near-enough cancel - and with that, the diff against the American rate is no longer the majority of the anomaly.

I had trouble finding the ever-married stat, so I went to the 2017 marriages dataset. Table 12 is 'Proportions of men and women who had ever married by certain ages', and for the 1984 men's cohort - the last one with complete data - the rates are 6% for 25yos through 39% for 34yos. The average over that age range is 22%.

So upfront, I didn't notice it was the mens' cohort. My bad, and I'll fix my post once I've figured out the other problem: these figures are decidedly inconsistent with the figures you've found. It&... (read more)

One of them is called “How far can deep learning take us? A look at performance and economic limits.”

In case anyone else is looking for this, it seems to have been published as The Computational Limits of Deep Learning.