Can't wait for EAGuantanamo! Kidding of course, but I'm not sure how valuable it'd be given how difficult it is for former convicts to get jobs (e.g. low expected earnings to contribute to high impact charities down the line). But for groups doing work on recidivism and the like, I do hope they are recruiting out of pools of ex-cons to really understand what the problems are that folks face.
At this point I'd think higher interest rates have knocked many overinflated stonks down to a reasonable level (at least based on the bloodbath that is the tech stock market over the last few months), that's not to say of course that other risks haven't been adequately priced in... like the most valuable company in the world for instance being hugely dependent on the manufacturing of a geopolitical competitor to the U.S.
My understanding is that persistent higher inflation may actually be very good for the U.S. government as it'll essentially erode the debt as inflation eats away at the value of the loans, so that should be taken into account. Of course, it's bad for stability, especially if you runaway inflation, but with high employment mitigating some of the downside this seems like a major positive factor for the U.S. gov given the amount of debt it holds.
Edit to add: Thanks for taking the time to write this up, found it enjoyable and was a fun thought experiment!
I'm not sure I understand why this is the best donation target, even for people who want to donate specifically to a political race. For one, it seems all prediction markets and forecasters like FiveThirtyEight give R's a ~75%+ chance of taking back the house, so this single race seems unlikely to be particularly impactful. What's more, the Salinas Erickson race seems relatively safe for D's and I've seen no mention of it anywhere being a tossup. This feels like something I'd get in a campaign email down to the closing line pulling on heartstrings and then immediately asking for a donation.
I mostly agree but a few counterpoints (I've been in DC for about 1yr total now).
On net however, I think it's a decent American city to live in and it certainly does punch above its weight for museums, architecture, restaurants, and even flights given its status as the capital.
There are substantial kickbacks (called “site commissions”), where a large percentage of the per-minute rates are paid to the facilities for the right to the contract. A typical rate is 50%, and these can run as high as 96%. Given they get a percentage of every dollar spent, the facilities also have an incentive to keep costs high to increase their revenue, not to give the end consumer the lowest cost of connection.
Does any of this money also get sent back to the county/state too? Just wondering what other stakeholders are benefitting from the status quo.
Given the way these prisons are run (it seems often poorly with a profit motive rather than one trying to help reduce recidivism) why not just start a nonprofit private prison from scratch and manage the whole thing? Palmer Luckey mentioned this in an interview a while back as something he'd be working on if he hadn't decided to build Anduril: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jilliandonfro/2019/10/31/palmer-luckey-oculus-anduril-forbes-under-30-summit-nonprofit-prisons/?sh=7f3d1615ecee
Thanks! Sorry for the ignorance but for #4 then, how would you go about figuring out 1) what job you would be good at if you joined (and in which branch to try to join) and then 2) how to make sure that you actually were assigned to that job when you do join?
An unrelated q- is there any additional upside joining a new branch like Space Force?
I actually think there was a major lawsuit about agreements between organizations not to poach one another's employees. https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/apple-google-others-settle-anti-poaching-lawsuit-for-415-million/