All of Austen_Forrester's Comments + Replies

I didn't mean to imply that it was hopeless to increase charitable giving in China, rather the opposite, that it's so bad it can only go up! Besides that, I agree with all your points.

The Chinese government already provides foreign aid in Africa to make it possible to further their interests in the region. I was thinking of how we could possibly get them to expand it. The government seems almost impossible to influence, but perhaps EAs could influence African governments to try to solicit more foreign aid from China? It could have a negative consequence, h... (read more)

I agree that financial incentives/disincentives result in failures (ie. social problems) of all kinds. One of the biggest reasons, as I'm sure you mention at some point in your book, is corruption. ie. the beef/dairy industry pays off environmental NGOs and government to stay quiet about their environmental impact.

But don't you think that non-financial rewards/punishment also play a large role in impeding social progress, in particular social rewards/punishment? ie. people don't wear enough to stay warm in the winter because others will tease them for being uncool, people bully others because they are then respected more, etc.

It could be a useful framing. "Optimize" to some people may imply making something already good great, such as making the countries with the highest HDI even better, or helping emerging economies to become high income, rather than helping the more suffering countries to catch up to the happier ones. It could be viewed as helping a happy person become super happy and not a sad person to become happy. I know this narrow form of altruism isn't your intention, I'm just saying that "optimize" does have this connotation. I personally prefer &... (read more)

Of course, I totally forgot about the "global catastrophic risk" term! I really like it and it doesn't only suggest extinction risks. Even its acronym sounds pretty cool. I also really like your "technological risk" suggestion, Rob. Referring to GCR as "Long term future" is a pretty obvious branding tactic by those that prioritize GCRs. It is vague, misleading, and dishonest.

For "far future"/"long term future," you're referring to existential risks, right? If so, I would think calling them existential or x-risks would be the most clear and honest term to use. Any systemic change affects the long term such as factory farm reforms, policy change, changes in societal attitudes, medical advances, environmental protection, etc, etc. I therefore don't feel it's that honest to refer to x-risks as "long term future."

By regular morals, I mean basic morals such as treating others how you like to be treated, ie. rules that you would be a bad person if you failed to abide by them. While I don't consider EA superorogatory, neither do I think that not practicing EA makes someone a bad person, thus, I wouldn't put it in the category of basic morals. (Actually, that is the standard I hold others to, for myself, I would consider it a moral failure if I didn't practice EA!) I think it actually is important to differentiate between basic and, let's say, more “advanced” morals be... (read more)

I think it may be useful to differentiate between EA and regular morals. I would put donating blood in the latter category. For instance, treating your family well isn't high impact on the margin, but people should still do it because of basic morals, see what I mean? I don't think that practicing EA somehow excuses someone from practicing good general morals. I think EA should be in addition to general morals, not replace it.

Perhaps I got it wrong, but I thought that the premise of your position that EA outreach should proportionally represent what people who identify as EAs consider their favourite cause is that EAs (however “effective altruist” is defined) are morally and intellectually superior to the public. I know for a fact that this is the prevailing attitude EAs have. I would really like to know why it is not enough to educate the public on EA-related issues. Why should the public care what is the favourite cause of an upper class 25 year old who donates $500 a year to... (read more)

My point was that EAs probably should exclusively promote full-blown EA, because that has a good chance of leading to more uptake of both full-blown and weak EA. Ball's issue with the effect of people choosing to go part-way after hearing the veg message is that it often leads to more animals being killed due to people replacing beef and pork with chicken. That's a major impetus for his direct “cut out chicken before pork and beef” message. It doesn't undermine veganism because chicken-reducers are more likely to continue on towards that lifestyle, probabl... (read more)

One thing to keep in mind is that people often (or usually, even) choose the middle ground by themselves. Matt Ball often mentions how this happens in animal rights with people deciding to reduce meat after learning about the merits vegetarianism and mentions that Nobel laureate Herb Simon is known for this realization of people opting for sub-optimal decisions.

Thus, I think that in promoting pure EA, most people will practice weak EA (ie. not cause neutral) on their own accord, so perhaps the best way to proliferate weak EA is by promoting strong EA.

I totally understand your concern that the EA movement is misrepresenting itself by not promoting issues proportional to their representation among people in the group. However, I think that the primary consideration in promoting EA should be what will hook people. Very few people in the world care about AI as a social issue, but extreme poverty and injustice are very popular causes that can attract people. I don't actually think it should matter for outreach what the most popular causes are among community members. Outreach should be based on what is like... (read more)

I don't see how TYLCS is selling out at all. They have the same maximizing impact message as other EA groups, just with a more engaging feel that also appeals to emotions (the only driver of action in almost all people).

Matt Ball is more learned and impact-focused than anyone in the animal rights field. One Step for Animals, and the Reducetarian Foundation were formed to save as many animals as possible -- complementing, not replacing, vegan advocacy. Far from selling out, One Step and Reducetarian are the exceptions from most in animal rights who have traded their compassion for animals for feelings of superiority.

I really respect the moderators of this forum for allowing me to advocate for public safety (ie. criticize NUE) and removing comments that could endanger public safety (ie. advocating suicide)!

Those radicalization factors you mentioned increase the likelihood for terrorism but are not necessary. Saying that people don't commit terror from reading philosophical papers and thus those papers are innocent and shouldn't be criticized is a pretty weak argument. Of course, such papers can influence people. The radicalization process starts with philosophy, so to say that first step doesn't matter because the subsequent steps aren't yet publicly apparent shows that you are knowingly trying to allow this form of radicalization to flourish. Although, NUE... (read more)

Have you considered combining the "GiveWell for impact investing" idea with the Effective Altruism Funds idea and create an EA impact investing biz within your charity? You could hire staff to find the best impact investing opportunities and create a few funds for different risk tolerances. Theoretically, it could pay for itself (or make serious money for CEA if successful enough) with a modest management fee. I'm not sure if charities are allowed to grant to businesses, but I know they can operate their own businesses as long as it's related to their mission.

Entering China would be awesome. So many people with money and no one's donating it. It ranks dead freaking last on the World Giving Index. Which in a way is a good thing... it means lots of room to grow!

China's domestic charities are usually operated and funded by the government (basically part of the government). And starting this year, the government has basically taken control of foreign NGO's in China.

Often, rich Chinese elect to donate to foreign NGOs because they are more credible. Besides, being government-controlled, charities in China are not k... (read more)

Blind people are not a discriminated group, at least not in the first world. The extreme poor, on the other hand, often face severe discrimination -- they are mistreated and have their rights violated by those with power, especially if they are Indians of low caste.

Comparative intervention effectiveness is a pillar of EA, distinct from personal sacrifice, so they are not interchangeable. I reject that there is some sort of prejudice for choosing to help one group over another, whether the groups are defined by physical condition, location, etc. One always ... (read more)

Peter, even if a trachoma operation cost the same as training a guide dog, and didn't always prevent blindness, it would still be an excellent cost comparison because vision correction is vastly superior to having a dog.

They encourage cooperation with other value systems to further their apocalyptic goals, but mostly to prevent others from opposing them. That is different from tempering "strong NU" with other value systems to arrive at more moderate conclusions.

LOOOOL about your optimism of people not following FRI's advocacy as purely as they want! Lets hope so, eh?

It's the only negative utilitarianism promoting group I know of. Does anyone know of others (affiliated with EA or not)?

I know they don't actually come out and recommend terrorism publicly... but they sure go as far as they can to entice terrorism without being prosecuted by the government as a terrorist organization. Of course, if they were explicit, they'd immediately be shut down and jailed by authorities.

I promise you this – all those who endorse this mass termination of life ideology are going to pay a price. Whether by police action or public scrutiny, they will be forced to publicly abandon their position at some point. I implore them to do it now, on their volition.... (read more)

LOL. Typical of my comments. Gets almost no upvotes but I never receive any sensible counterarguments! People use the forum vote system to persuade (by social proof) without having a valid argument. I have yet to vote a comment (up or down) because I think people should think for themselves.

Those guiding principles are good. However, I wished you would include one that was against doing massive harm to the world. CEA endorses the “Foundational Research Institute,” a pseudo-think tank that promotes dangerous ideas of mass-termination of human and non-human life, not excluding extinction. By promoting this organization, CEA is promoting human, animal, and environmental terrorism on the grandest scale. Self-styled “effective altruists” try to pass themselves off as benevolent, but the reality is that they themselves are one of the biggest threats to the world by promoting terrorism and anti-spirituality under the cloak of altruism.

I'm a little confused as to why you are trying to promote a cause that you think is low priority and financially inefficient. Anyhow, I don't find your anti-corporate stance convincing. Lack of corporate involvement (ie. to distribute analgesics) is the missing link preventing some countries from having functional palliative care in some countries according to Dr. Foley. It's important to work with all stakeholders for progress in any space. The affordable anti-retroviral movement made progress by working with pharma. The risks of working with industry in ... (read more)

One good thing about this space is that, unlike so much other policy work, access to pain relief doesn't have corporations interfering by paying off government, etc. If anything, corporations would stand to gain by increasing access to pharmaceuticals. So much other policy advocacy is stifled by corporate interference, so palliative care has a huge advantage in that regard. Would it be possible for advocates to work with pharma corporations to lobby for increased access? I know that sometimes governments have good regulations in place but can't find corpor... (read more)

Thank you, Lee, for this eye-opening and thorough introduction to the issue of lack of access to analgesics. I can't believe the scale of the problem! With the immense scale and striking neglectedness of the problem, and the potential for leaps in gains with changes to state/national policies, I'm sure it deserves a high priority for changemakers.

Causes like this are why I've always thought that effective altruism is just as important to be taken up in poor countries as much as rich ones – internal changemakers are invaluable here, as you've stated. Unive... (read more)

I appreciate you posting on this forum, carneades. Your take on international development is in line with economic principles and what I've learned from people from Africa and India. EA badly needs this type of debate. What I am not hearing from you or others who take your point of view, however, is solutions. While your general criticisms of international aid are valid, what are the solutions? How do we help people in poor countries to develop and be more independent? There are charities like One Acre Fund that seem to only have a positive impact because increasing self-sufficiency. Should poverty philanthrobucks focus on those? What specific charities or interventions would you recommend?

I've always thought the same as you, Ian. Great point about foundations, BTW. Very few people are willing to only give to the highest EV charity across all causes and countries, therefore they might as well give as effectively as possible within whatever criteria they have (ie. domestic, homeless). The only argument to the contrary is that there is a counterfactual if the all-or-nothing purist form of EA is broken and people donate to top domain-specific charities that would have given to the best cause neutral charity. I doubt there is much of a counterfa... (read more)

Very good report, James. I have a few comments:

1. The DALYs calculated for mental health don't factor in the huge effect that mental health has on physical health. This may be laboursome to estimate, but should at least be considered. And you mentioned that people with MNS issues are often treated horrendously by their family/society, but that also hasn't been factored into the DALY cost estimate. An MNS disorder with a 0.4 DALY could really have a 0.9 DALY when you factor in mistreatment. I realize this is probably impossible to do, but it important to rec

Excellent paper! One important factor in LMIC mental health work is sustainability. Take helplines. Far as I know, they are locally funded in poor countries, yet there are very few of them. A foreign NGO or individual could have an extremely high impact founding a helpline in a location, turning the fundraising and operation over to the local community once it gets going, and then repeating the process in subsequent cities. Dependency on foreign donors is always a last resort. The absolute cost of running a helpline is less important than the ability of th... (read more)

When you mention the $1000/DALY by "Stronger Minds," are you referring to strongminds.org? I asked them if they had a cost estimate for DALYs but never received a reply. If it does refer to StrongMinds, do you know if they have predicted a cost per DALY once there viral group therapy model of treating depression grows significantly? Mayberry says in his TED talk that he expects it to become cheaper as it grows.

Also, does your discussion of DALYs for mental health interventions only include YLD, or also YLL? I would think there could be a large difference between the two considering the huge impact depression has on morbidity and mortality (comparable to obesity).

I disagree about the cause area and organization being more important than the intervention. To me, it's all about the intervention in the end. Supporting people that you "believe in" in a cause that you think is important is basically a bet that you are making that a high impact intervention will spring forth. That is one valid way of going about maximizing impact, however, working the other way – starting with the intervention and then supporting those best suited to implement it, is also valid.

The same is true for your point about a funder spe... (read more)

I think INT would be more clear/useful if it was applied to the most high impact intervention of the cause, rather than the cause itself. Because a cause can be low in scale and neglectedness but high in tractability if there is one very high impact intervention that has been ignored or simply isn't known about. Or vise versa – the scale and neglectedness could be high while it's best intervention isn't that promising (thus the cause has low tractability). So the importance in this usage would be that of the best intervention of the cause being successful ... (read more)

Absolutely. That is such a common tactic. I think all of the criticisms against EA use one cheap rhetorical trick or another. Someone needs to make up a definitive web page that lists all the criticisms of EA with responses, and most importantly, calls out the rhetorical device that was used. It's mostly the same tired, discredited criticisms and persuasive tricks that are used over and over, so rather than responding to each individually, we can simply refer people to the web page.

Can anybody submit an essay or do authors have to meet certain qualifications?

What is the desired range of length, if any? Is there any provision in submitting to a journal for originality? I want to avoid writing something that is similar to something already published. I'll double check myself, of course, but I could still miss it.

Are you SURE that's the deadline? ;^)

The most common way of helping many people by a small amount is through business. Whether it's one you've started or one you work for, in a large business you can make many, many people's lives slightly (at least) better by improving upon, or inventing a new, superior service or product. Businesses can scale up far more than charities. And if you create a social-impact focused business, you can also significantly improve each of your clients' lives. Businesses have improved the world far more than charities have, through economic growth and technological progress.

The fact of the matter is that people in the EA community are prejudiced against anyone different from them and look for any justification to keep them out. Since there are no genuine justifications, it generally takes the form of instilling fear of the unknown into others, no different from any other type of bigotry: “But if we let blacks in this school, who knows what will happen! We must keep them out because, well, you just never know what horrible things may happen!”

The whole premise of the debate is prejudiced. EA's being more accepting of people di... (read more)

It may be more technically correct not to have neglectedness as a separate criterion, but I find that it is the single most important factor in cause prioritization, despite the fact that it's only utility is its affect on the other two factors. Just my personal observation. For example, the causes that I think have the highest expected value: pesticide poisoning, self harm/suicide, depression in the Third World, loneliness, are all great in magnitude and have huge potential for progress precisely because they have been severely neglected. That's why I've ... (read more)

I completely agree that neglectedness is often the route cause of the size and tractability, but that's the whole point. Neglectedness only matters inasmuch as it affects the other two criteria and is included on it's own mostly to aid analysis of tractability – it has no value on it's own. For instance, if a cause is low in importance/scale and tractability, it wouldn't matter what the neglectedness is at all. I think the neglectedness factor only comes into play if a problem is important and tractable (including on the margin), yet crowded. In that case,... (read more)