Data Analyst and Consultant @ Quantium
1405 karmaJoined Sep 2017Working (0-5 years)London, UK



Data analyst at a consulting firm, previously ran an EA university group.

How others can help me

Suggestions on analyst-type skills to develop that would be useful to EA orgs, and which orgs they would be useful to. Advice on setting up an EA co-working space in Sydney.

How I can help others

Feedback or your ideas!


I took that second quote to mean ‘even if Sam is dodgy it’s still good to publicly back him’

Re your footnote 4, CE/AIM are starting an earning-to-give incubation program, so that is likely to change pretty soon

Factual note: Rory Stewart isn’t a co-founder of GD, he is/was a later stage employee

Are you sure it's not the other possible candidate? I have only heard negative things about one of their personalities.

Was that lying or misremembering though? Lying is a fairly big accusation to make.

The Wired article says that there’s been a bunch more research in recent years about the effects of bed nets on fish stocks, so I would consider the GiveWell response out of date

I don’t think it can be separated neatly. If the person who has died as a result of the charity’s existence is a recipient of a disease reduction intervention, then they may well have died from the disease instead if not for the intervention.

Answer by RebeccaMar 28, 202416
  1. What do you see as the importance of GiveWell specifically pulling out a “deaths caused” number, vs factoring that number in by lowering the “lives saved” number?

  2. Are you saying that no competent philosopher would use their own definition for altruism when what it “really” means is somewhat different? My experience of studying philosophy has been the reverse - defining terms unique is very common.

  3. Is the implication of this paragraph, that all the events described happened after SBF started donating FTX money, intentional?

WHILE SBF’S MONEY was still coming in, EA greatly expanded its recruitment of college students. GiveWell’s Karnofsky moved to an EA philanthropy that gives out hundreds of millions of dollars a year and staffed up institutes with portentous names like Global Priorities and The Future of Humanity. Effective altruism started to synergize with adjacent subcultures, like the transhumanists (wannabe cyborgs) and the rationalists (think “Mensa with orgies”). EAs filled the board of one of the Big Tech companies

  1. Does this mean you think prediction markets don’t end up working in practice to hold people to their track records of mid-probability predictions?

Even if the thing you gave a 57 percent chance of happening never happens, you can still claim you were right.

I don’t think you incorporate the number at face value, but plausibly you do factor it in in some capacity, given the level of detail GiveWell goes into for other factors

I am very surprised to read that GiveWell doesn't at all try to factor in deaths caused by the charities when calculating lives saved. I don't agree that you need a separate number for lives lost as for lives saved, but I had always implicitly assumed that 'lives saved' was a net calculation.

The rest of the post is moderately misleading though (e.g. saying that Holden didn't start working at Open Phil, and the EA-aligned OpenAI board members didn't take their positions, until after FTXFF had launched).

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