basil.halperin

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6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction

One crude metric: the number of forecasters has gone up 25% in the last month, from n=284 to n=354

6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction

It would be interesting if it were possible to disambiguate:

1. Previous forecasters moved up their forecasts to shorter timelines

vs.

2. New forecasters, who have shorter timelines, offered forecasts for the question when they hadn't forecasted previously

Both are informative, and in a real-money prediction market both are equally informative. But with a forecasting platform, this could "just" be a composition bias?

Leveraging finance to increase resilience to GCRs

Cascading, systemic and GCRs typically aren’t priced into asset prices

I'm not sure that this is important to your arguments, but -- do you have any evidence that this is actually the case?

Stress - effective ways to reduce it

For diaphragmatic breathing, where are you getting the 27.05% number from? I didn't see it in the Hamasaki (2020) lit review you linked to.

Also, looking at that paper:

  • It seems like most of the RCTs are run on people with underlying conditions: asthma, cancer, etc. Of course this is of interest, but is not of general interest to generally healthy populations
  • In section 3.2.4 on RCTs involving healthy subjects, I only see studies on
    • The effect on motion sickness
    • Smokers
    • The effect on "forced vital capacity" when done in conjunction with upper body work
    • The effect on breathing in adolescent runners

But I don't see any RCTs on the effect of diaphragmatic breathing in healthy populations on stress. Did I miss something? (Quite possible since I'm not sure where you're getting the 27.05% number from.)

How to PhD

I like this writeup a lot, but I would say to anyone who's actually reading this should ignore the advice to not go into academia.

If you're reading this, you're probably selected  (!) to be someone who is atypical and has a decent shot at succeeding in academia. (See also: SSC on 'reversing all advice you hear'.) i.e.: if you're someone who's taking the time out of your day to read this, you're probably (probably!) similar to "Anita" here.

Three Impacts of Machine Intelligence

Agreed re: "mispricing = restatement that this is a contrarian position" -- but to push back on your "lack of feedback" point:

If the market can't price 30-year cashflows, it can't price anything, since for any infinitely-lived asset (eg stocks!), most of the present-discounted value of future cash flows is far in the future. 

See eg this Ralph Koijen thread and linked paper, "the first 10 years of dividends only make up ~20% of the value of the stock market. 80% is due to value of cash flows beyond 10 years"

(I wonder how big EMH proponents like Hanson and Yudkowsky explain the dissonance.)

Three Impacts of Machine Intelligence

Personally I agree with the economic forecasts and approximate timelines here, but I haven’t seen a way of reconciling the “accelerating growth” prediction with the efficient market hypothesis.

Low 30-year government bond rates in the US (and 50- or 100-year rates in some other countries!) imply the market expects low growth over this time horizon, not ever-accelerating economic growth rates.

If growth goes up and interest rates rise, these are massively overvalued. It’s possible, but, we’d have to tell some some more elaborate stories (AI-led growth is not broad-based? It’s all captured by one firm...? It FOOMs?) if we want to be consistent with EMH.

Oddly, Britain has never been happier

This smells like a composition effect. Have you checked that this is not just due to e.g. aging of the population; or driven by the rise in immigration?

When you write it like that, it seems obvious :)

Thanks.

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