@ Metaculus
173Joined May 2021


Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting

The speed, sophistication, and impacts of AI technology development together comprise some of the most astonishing and significant events of our lifetimes. AI development promises both enormous risks and opportunities for society. Join our AI forecasting team and help humankind better navigate this crucial period. 

Open roles include:

Machine Learning Engineer - AI Forecasting

You’ll work to enhance the organization and searchability of our AI analyses, ensure that the AI-related data and thinking that we rely on is up-to-date, comprehensive, and well organized, and deliver (via modeling) forecasts on an enormous set of questions concerning the trajectory of AI.

Research Analyst - AI Forecasting

You’ll engage deeply with ideas about the future of AI and its potential impacts, and share insights with the AI research and forecasting communities and with key decision makers. You’ll use crowd forecasting to help generate these insights, writing forecasting questions that are informative and revealing, facilitating forecasting tournaments, and coordinating with Pro Forecasters.

Quantitative Research Analyst - AI Forecasting

You’ll use quantitative modeling to improve our ability to anticipate the future of AI and its impact on the world, enhance our AI-related decision making capabilities, and enable quantitative evaluation of ideas about the dynamics governing AI progress.

You can learn about our other high-impact, open positions here.

Hey Nathan — currently, there are only plans to publish the forecasts on Metaculus. We'll let you know if that changes, however. 

At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action. 

We are hiring for a number of roles, including the following: 

Backend Engineer

Full-Stack Engineer

Front-End Engineer

Data Scientist (Causality)

AI Forecasting Lead

CTO (Chief Technology Officer)

Forecasting Program Director

We've recently received some excellent applications saying "I wasn't sure if you were still hiring for this position." If you're reading this, know that we are! 

Hi Pablo, we're accepting new writers on a rolling basis and we don't have a planned date for when we'll stop.

Hi Benjamin, these are great questions! I work with Metaculus and wanted to add a bit of color here: 

To your question about how to see the Metaculus Prediction, that's located:

—basically one has to be of a sufficient "level", and then pay out some tachyons (the coin of the realm) to unlock the Metaculus Prediction for that question. That said, in this case, we're happy to share the current MP with you. (I'll message you here in a moment.)

And as to how the MP is calculated, the best resource there was written by one of the founders, and lives in this blog post:

To your question about catastrophic risk from an unknown source, the table in the post doesn't include that bit, as it's only summing the %s of the different catastrophic risk questions, but you're right that you can get something like it from the question you link to:

Which just refers to that 10% decrease by any means, full stop. The Metaculus Prediction there is lower than the Community Prediction, FYI, but is indeed above the 14% you get from summing the other questions. So that makes some sense given that there are the other possibilities, however remote, that are not explicitly named. But it's also true that there are different predictors on each question, and also the linked to forecast is not explicitly pitched as "summing the other catastrophes up gives you 14% and so this linked to question is meant to produce a forecast of 14+X%, where X is the probability of unnamed catastrophes."

I hope that was useful. Please do reach out if you'd like to continue the conversation.