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Really appreciate this overview. Are there any ballpark CEAs that would motivate a retail altruist like me to spend more time on this vs. just donating to GiveDirectly's COVID-19 Africa Impact Fund? This WFP impact report suggests $350-$600/case of malnutrition averted, and if such a case is ~1.2 DALYs according to this Malian study (seems in the ballpark of other estimates) then we're looking at low five figures per life saved, which is better than GiveDirectly.

Some considerations:

(1) How good is WFP's targeting for this pandemic? Maybe national, local, and household targeting stats could be combined to yield estimated caseloads averted in areas deemed high-risk by IPC.

(2) To what extent is the marginal dollar to WFP (restricted if necessary to a well-targeted country) simply displacing other solutions at every level, private (in the long run), government or NGO? This is particularly relevant given the size and longevity of WFP's operations.

(3) Where are the 35m-165m people NOT being reached by WFP, and can we estimate the cost-effectiveness of any interventions that are reaching them?

Would appreciate unpacking the 'low-confidence considerations' you've found hitherto. This is all very time-sensitive and I'm surprised at how little attention it's received.