Great idea! For the section on existential risk, my suggestion would be https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf It has a government and diplomacy point of view, but I found it much more readable than other material I have encountered on the topic. I'm not an expert in this area though, so if someone has a better suggestion for an accessible introduction, go for it.

Thank you for this post! It would be great to think about coordinating evaluations of such projects, so we can learn from each other. Would the best way be to post to the forum, or does LEAN keep a database of comments/reflections/reports from local groups on what they have tried and how it has gone?

Also, has the follow-up article with ideas for projects been posted?

I have a post coming up soon on public opinion on this question, not that it tells us what a well-researched estimate would be. As a follow-up it could be worth investigating whether presenting people with a number (if any knowledgeable researchers can be persuaded to give one) is makes a difference compared with presenting a similar argument without a numerical risk estimate, in terms of people thinking the issue is important or supporting or taking an action to address it.

What do you see as a better way of gathering data going forward?