In case people are interested, while updating updating Epoch's Literature Review of AI Timelines with this new forecast, I created a small notebook which uses a slightly different approach to aggregating the individual forecasts. Briefly, I fit a Gamma distribution to each forecast, which produces a CDF. Then, I combine the fitted CDFs using the geometric mean of odds. (This general approach is inspired by what AI Impacts has done in their expert surveys, although they use a different method of aggregating the fitted CDFs.) The final results are pretty similar, although a little more aggressive in the short- and longer-term, and a little less aggressive in the medium-term:
P(AGI by ___):
Year when P(AGI) reaches ___:
The notebook also includes some simple plots of the forecasts which you can play with.