David Atkinson

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In case people are interested, while updating updating Epoch's Literature Review of AI Timelines with this new forecast, I created a small notebook which uses a slightly different approach to aggregating the individual forecasts. Briefly, I fit a Gamma distribution to each forecast, which produces a CDF. Then, I combine the fitted CDFs using the geometric mean of odds. (This general approach is inspired by what AI Impacts has done in their expert surveys, although they use a different method of aggregating the fitted CDFs.) The final results are pretty similar, although a little more aggressive in the short- and longer-term, and a little less aggressive in the medium-term:

P(AGI by ___):

  • 2030: 28%
  • 2050: 59%
  • 2100:  89%

Year when P(AGI) reaches ___:

  • 10%: 2024
  • 50%: 2043
  • 90%: 2104

The notebook also includes some simple plots of the forecasts which you can play with.