Thank you for the very thorough and well researched essay.
Thanks for sharing. I'll check out your post.
Do you know how one might get another copy of the Precipice? I donated mine to a friend.
Yes 1000% on the cultural factors that have desensitized us to nuclear risk. Tyler Cowen has a nice series of posts out today on this subject: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/08/which-is-the-hingy-est-century.html
I might find time to go back and reread the Precipice and dig into the probabilities you reference. Those seem odd. It's also odd because something that reduces humanity to subsistence levels for a very long time and eliminates ninety some odd percent of the population is absolutely catastrophic. I suppose I'm a hyberbolic discounter at heart and do think that while we should care about the far future, it's really silly to get into the 1-1 logic that a human a billion years from now should be equally valued for decision making as one today or ten years from now.
This comment from another post seems very apropos for this discussion:
"You can read ungodly reams of essays defining effective altruism - which makes me wonder if the people who wrote them think that they are creating the greatest possible utility by using their time that way "
Shouldn't it be possible to do a simple chart of ballpark funding to longtermist versus neartermist causes over time from EA aligned orgs?
These types of questions deserve more focused dialogue and debate.
What's your evidence for EA being big tent? Has there been a survey done of new EA members and their perception? Focus groups? Other qualitative research? Curious for the basis of your claims. Thanks much!
Lol full alignment of the state is not exactly a historically proud tradition... there were several notable efforts to align all the various sectors for the greater capacity of the state and society, strengthening all involved like how many small sticks bound together forms a much more robust whole.
What did you find specifically funny?
Hacker News is more adjacent (digitally native, young, affluent) than you might think. It is a bit different than EA but not as different as say the crowd in a Teamsters union hall or oil derrick in the North Sea.