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Indestructibly optimistic.


Anyone questioning participating in the movement given these revelations? 

Anyone questioning participating in the movement given these revelations? 

Do the new SBF revelations cause any reconsideration of this contest? 

Can we run a formal critique of the criticism contest after I find out that my submissions didn't win? I don't have a pile of cash though I do have a lot of extra special bonus points for people. 

What about critiques that you or another EA might not love but needs to read? 

Has EA engaged with the geopolitical risks of AI / AGI? For example regardless if AGI is developed, there are different risks if advanced AI is led and controlled by the CCP verus Open AI.

Thank you for the very thorough and well researched essay. 

Thanks for sharing. I'll check out your post. 

Do you know how one might get another copy of the Precipice? I donated mine to a friend.

Yes 1000% on the cultural factors that have desensitized us to nuclear risk. Tyler Cowen has a nice series of posts out today on this subject: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/08/which-is-the-hingy-est-century.html

I might find time to go back and reread the Precipice and dig into the probabilities you reference. Those seem odd. It's also odd because something that reduces humanity to subsistence levels for a very long time and eliminates ninety some odd percent of the population is absolutely catastrophic. I suppose I'm a hyberbolic discounter at heart and do think that while we should care about the far future, it's really silly to get into the 1-1 logic that a human a billion years from now should be equally valued for decision making as one today or ten years from now. 

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