devansh

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"Tech company singularities", and steering them to reduce x-risk

>>after a tech company singularity, such as if the tech company develops safe AGI

I think this should be "after AGI"?

'Dropping out' isn't a Plan

Ah, I see. I guess I kind of buy this, but I don't think it's nearly as cut-and-dry as you argue, or something. Not sure how much this generalizes, but to me "staying in school" has been an option that conceals approximately as many major suboptions as "leaving school." I'd argue that for many people, this is approximately true - that is, people have an idea of where they'd want to work or what they'd want to do given leaving school, but broadly "staying in school" could mean anything from staying on ~exactly the status quo to transferring somewhere in a different country, taking a gap year, etc.

'Dropping out' isn't a Plan

I don't really see how the world is different whether or not you use the first or the second representation here? "Drop out and go work at a job" seems like a plan at a higher level of abstraction than "drop out and work in {area}," which is itself at a higher level of abstraction than "drop out and work in {area|position}," which is a higher level of abstraction than "drop out and work at ORG1." 

What's the bright line between the first and the second?

Go apply for 80K Advising - (Yes, right now)

Agreed (and only 20% kidding.) Having an 80k post pinned seems wonderful.

Legal support for EA orgs - useful?

Yeah, this is a good consideration; if something like this ended up happening, it would be wonderful if Tyrone could get two or three lawyers to cover the major EA hubs (US, especially CA, the UK, and maybe the Bahamas) - either in physical location or in knowledge.

Legal support for EA orgs - useful?

FWIW, I am currently running an EA org, and legal help would be generally valuable to me both in the past and in the present. My impression is that scaling an EA law firm would involve a few people at the top being EAs and the rest being perfectly fine as normal, non-aligned lawyers; this would gain a bunch of the benefits of an EA law firm (primarily, I think, a general understanding of what EA's goals are and a "cost-benefit analysis" type thinking that tries to avoid being overly conservative and is perfectly fine advising its clients to do, e.g., things that are legally grey area but not enforced) 

So I'd say my answer is that this seems, at least to me personally, like a very potentially high-impact thing that would be incredibly helpful to me and other people starting small- and medium-sized organizations who need legal advice and support. This being said, I am probably not in the best position to answer that question (not having a birds'-eye view of the EA ecosystem like some others do) and so I'm very interested in other perspectives on this.

It seems like this depends very, very heavily upon the actual person. I think the range of "when would it be best for a particular person to learn about EA" could be anywhere from, like, 10 (I imagine Eliezer) all the way up to old age for a small number of people, although the distribution seems like it hits a peak somewhere in the 14-25 range because that's when people have both critical thinking abilities and the ability to change their mind about important things.

That being said, if your goal is to get people who are going to make major contributions to the world in the future, it seems to me that that subgroup is pretty heavily correlated with "people who would have been interested in EA in high school, if only they had known about it." This post seems to agree. Younger than that, and I think only a very very tiny portion of the population can keep up with the ideas (and I have some concerns about trying to influence the minds of, like, the vast majority of 12 year olds); older, and they've lost idea-flexibility and are more set in their ways. 

The age group you're targeting seems fine if slightly young, although the way you describe your specific outreach method pattern-matches to a concerning one in my mind, and I'd potentially encourage you to consider the asymmetric arguments for why the type of outreach you're currently doing is fine/not fine. If you can cheaply take steps to target a slightly older audience, that seems good.

Organizations Encouraging Russian Desertion?

Immediate human suffering almost certainly gives way to larger geopolitical effects in moral weight. Weakening Russian efforts likely points in the direction of a lower chance of nuclear war, for example.

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