Exciting stuff, thanks for the post!
If possible, could you expand on this bit from idea 2? "Note that I think existing prediction and evaluation setups are currently not ready to do this well. Among others, we need a) better engineering setups to do forecasting at scale, and b) better ontologies for cleaner evaluations at scale"
In particular, what do you see as the scale-limiting characteristics of platforms like Metaculus? Lack of incentives, or something else?
And what do you mean by "better ontologies for cleaner evaluations"? (E.g. describing an existing ontology and its limitations would be helpful)
I recently came across this work by researchers at the University of Melbourne: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajpy.12229
They propose 'enlightened compassion' as a distinct personality factor which seems to me to be pretty similar to the 'expansive altruism' construct mentioned in this forum post. The Melbourne Uni researchers find that 'enlightened compassion' is related to a combination of Agreeableness and Openness to Experience.
Great question! These are just some initial instincts - I'm not sure any of these questions are overly neglected, and they are too broad to be research questions, but curious to hear what others think: