Dimitri Molerov

0Joined Jun 2022


What a wonderful post!

I wonder if credal resilience (from the reasoner side) is the same as belief stability (from the belief side).

This could be turned into an easy online decision-support tool: input your goal, input your success metrics, guess your range of low-high impact by pursuing option X vs. opportunity cost of option Z, and how certain do you feel about your decision? Would one of the following increase your confidence: [set of options for decision support]. If you are building something, let me know.

I second machinaut and Benjamin Stewart's comments. 

My current work is in the area of rationality, (mis)information and information search, where new info gained could help uncover own biases or add weight to the alternative decision (while arguments continue to aggregate). In addition to narrowing down the corridor for a change of mind over time, there is a chance that a qualitative epistemic leap may occur (e.g., when your horizon of available options expands through new 'unknown unknowns' info, or when a new larger framework is uncovered that requires reappraisal). Here the range of options expands, before narrowing down again - subjective uncertainty in the shape of a fir tree pointed to the right. Including these considerations in decisions might not be too hard with a bit of training.

Moreover, a decision could be transformed by analyzing features of the options and choosing a third best of both option or no decision at all. Not sure how to represent these.

While the volatility from unknown unknowns might seem to support epistemic relativism at first, any new information warranting an expansion would seem to also imply a broader or more complex view. Over time, it becomes increasingly unlikely to find such new information that supports a 1Upped worldview. So after initial known types of resources are exhausted, and credal resilience increases, one can reasonably settle for a decision - while remaining open to 'game-changing information'. But if game-changing information is obtained, one could also be excused to reappraise and reverse the earlier decision; in this case reversibility/transition paths should be considered more prominently to minimize sunk cost.