All of drwahl's Comments + Replies

What novels, poetry, comics have EA themes, plots or characters?

Here are a few other forum posts on the general topic of fiction and EA.

Cause X Guide

Along these lines, preventing childhood lead poisoning is another potential candidate.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses

Thanks for this (somewhat overwhelming!) analysis. I tried to do something similar a few years back, and am pretty enthusiastic about the idea of incorporating more uncertainty analysis into cost effectiveness estimates, generally.

One thing (that I don't think you mentioned, though I'm still working through the whole post) this allows you to do is use techniques from Modern Portfolio Theory to create giving portfolios with similar altruistic returns and lower downside risk. I'd be curious to see if your analysis could be used in a similar way.

2cole_haus2yOh, very cool! I like the idea of sampling from different GiveWell staffers' values (though I couldn't do that here since I regarded essentially all input parameters as uncertain instead of just the highlighted ones). I hadn't thought about the MPT connection. I'll think about that more.
How do EA Orgs Account for Uncertainty in their Analysis?

I've done a little work on this, using techniques from modern portfolio theory, and uncertainty estimates from GiveWell and ACE to generate optimal charity portfolios. See here for a background post, and here for my 2016 update.

2Phil_Thomas5yThat’s interesting! I worked on something similar [https://github.com/psthomas/efficient-frontier/blob/master/efficient_frontier.ipynb] , but it only allows for normal distributions and requires pre-calculated returns and variances. Using the GiveWell estimates to create your own probability distributions is an interesting idea -- I spent some time looking through sources like the DCP2 and Copenhagen Consensus data but couldn’t find a source that did a good job of quantifying their uncertainty (although DCP2 does at least include the spread of their point estimates that I used for an analysis here [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-58LNxpCRQky7eCBr4AN1TAGWtCyCm4XiNnLEvYZ8r8/edit?usp=sharing] ). One thing I wondered about while working on this was whether it made sense to choose the tangency portfolio, or just keep moving up the risk curve to the portfolio with the highest expected value (In the end, I think this would mean just putting all your money in the single charity with the highest expected value). I guess the answer depends on how much risk an individual wants to take with their donations, so a nice feature of this approach is that it allows people to select a portfolio according to their risk preference. Overall, this seems like a good way to communicate the tradeoffs involved in philanthropy.
0Peter Wildeford5yThanks, this is actually highly relevant to another piece I'm working on!