Helpful post, Zach! I think it's more useful and concrete to focus on asking about specific capabilities instead of asking about AGI/TAI etc. and I'm pushing myself to ask such questions (e.g., when do you expect to have LLMs that can emulate Richard Feynmann-level -of-text).  Also, I like the generality vs capability distinction. We already have a generalist (Gato) but we don't consider it to be an AGI (I think).

A model of one’s own (or what I say to myself):

•  Defer a bit less today - think for yourself!
• What would the world look like if X was not true? 
• Make a prediction - don’t worry if it turns out to be false.
• Articulate an argument and find at least one objection to it. 

Full-time research in AI Safety. 

My upskilling study plan:

1. Math

i) Calculus (derivatives, integrals, Taylor series)

ii) Linear Algebra (this video series)

iii) Probability Theory

2. Decision Theory 

3. Microeconomics

i) Optimization of individual preferences

4. Computational Complexity 

5. Information Theory 

6. Machine Learning theory with a focus on deep neural networks 

7. The Alignment Forum 

8. Arbital 

"Find where the difficult thing hides, in its difficult cave, in the difficult dark." Iain S. Thomas

The Collingridge dilemma: it is difficult to predict the future impact of a technology. However, once the technology has been implemented, it becomes difficult to manage. 

It's more epistemically virtuous to make a wrong prediction than to make no predictions at all. 

Why bother with New Year's resolutions when you can just start doing things today (and every today)? 

"When they ask me about truth, I say, truth in which axiomatic system?" Teukros Michailides