All of edcon's Comments + Replies

 Some Psychiatric medication that has shown widespread use in Russia is unlicensed in Western countries. Some of these medications have RCTs showing benefit, eg. Afobazole showed increased anxiolytic properties  when compared to diazepam and no withdrawal. Does this suggest that already existing compounds that patents aren't owned by drug company will not achieve widespread use, how will physcedelics differ?  How will physcedelics have RCTs (randomised controlled trials) conducted that compared to pre-existing treatments, look at long term e... (read more)

Thanks for the post! Really well reasoned on the broad impact of malovelence.

1. It seems that any research on manipulation proof measures for detection for malevolence, would help the development of tools that would be useful for a totalitarian state.

2. I'm sceptical of further research on malevolence being helpful in stopping these people being in positions of power. At first glance I don't think a really well developed literature on malevolence, would of changed leaders coming to power in 20th century.

3. In terms of Public engagement, I am al... (read more)

There is some call in public health for work to reduce risk of zoonoses. This includes training in some LMIC's to improve hygeine and care around animals, and for vaccination of flu in some animal populations.

Thanks for your response! I think this is a really promising idea. Just a few minor points

1/ I agree that if set up right could incentivise pace if it includes accelerated cost esp. if it erred on the side being overly generous. Though just sceptical it will do this to a large extent, as some costs for haste are hard to quantify, eg. moving best/more staff onto this project at the detriment of other projects, and I doubt would be covered in a politically feasible payout structure (eg. 1% a month).

2/ I think the market incentive to coming first to market ... (read more)

Thorough recommendations, I particularly like format of key Q and As at end. However I don't see how this proposal will incentivise, aggressive ramp up in manufacturing that will decrease time to market. For example for vaccines a put up option will give similar pay out if 10 million doses are made by Jan or Feb. However the cost to the company for agressive ramp up of manufacturing capablities will be dramatically higher if they repurpose staff and equipment from manufacturing lucrative biologics to vaccines for example, to decrease time to productio... (read more)

Thanks for this Olaf, good work! I think improving institutions is a good intervention and is probably good to have in portfolio of measures to improve longterm. As well as this I think EA public discussion is overly focused on the question on what to do with an amount of money, not with a set amount of political influence, campaigning time. Though GPI and FHI seem to do some amount of govt advising.

From a UK perspective

1) Though changing voting systems seems good would change the likely outcome elections, (more PR systems tend to favour more left part... (read more)

Sorry I misread point about minister, I agree that ministerial input as well, would be helpful. Also my take is that setting up a UK Nc3R type group may be harder than seems. As after 2015 concerns from dual use research, many countries set 'centre for biosecurities' that regulate dual use research eg. France and Denmark. However in the UK, life sciences funding bodies were keen to self regulate rather than set up something similar. So I suspect may not support as could quite credibly argue that they have been effective at regulating dual use research themselves.

Yes I agree that budget would be reasonably low, think experience is more important. Seems videos made by inexperienced videographers tends to be low quality.

I think that the empirically the effort to prepare the biotic hedge, is likely to be be expensive in terms of resources and influence, as I suspect a lot of people would be strongly averse to directed panspernia, as it would be likely negative in some forms of negative utilitarianism, and other value systems. So it would be better for longterm future to reduce existential risk specifically.

I think SETI type searches are different, as you have to consider negative effects from contact to cuurent civilisation. Nice piece from paul christano https://sideways-view.com/2018/03/23/on-seti/

Some of AllFed's theory of change comes from change in government policy, through increasing resilience of food production to large risks. I am sceptical of the ability of research conducted by generalists outside of the academic system to be effective in this goal. Is there another way that Allfed is aiming to cause change, or is volunteer research helpful for another reason, providing ideas and analysis for more credible (to govts.) to compile

I suspect that a team already experienced with video development would be robustly better, a poorly produced EA youtube channel could have negative reputational value. Could be room for encouraging videos EA aligned topics maybe Vox future perfect video series? Video development is more expensive than text, not sure if it would be worth extra cost?

Take the scenario where there was a directed panspermia mission towards europa that containing a range of organisms up to the complexity, a simple fish and a range of species to make a self sustaining ecosystem that have been picked to be adapted to the enviroment they are going to and they successfully colonise . Would have to consider probabilities of where great filter is. If great filter is before this level of complexity then panspernia would be good, if think that on balance the whole space of possible civilisations are on net positive. However in a... (read more)

Thanks for this insightful look at the work of the APPG.

For biosecurity I think NC3R (reduce in animal research in labs), provides a good model for a successful institution that has changed norms in life sciences, through a mixture of funding research, advocacy and practical information.

Though BBRSC, MRC report on consideration of funding seems quite security conscious, not sure if EPRSC have any statement that is similar. In addition this is at funding stage only. Probably need for some review before publication.

In terms of having a minister for dual ... (read more)

I agree with Hauke, as well as being quite unlikely that hobbyist will have better ideas and recommendations than groups of public health experts. These specific ideas also have clear potential to cause harm through taking away PPE from those that most need it, and plausibly causing an increase in transmission through touching inside of masks and risk aversion behaviour. Even ideas that would have small expected EV in transmission, have the potential to cause harm overall in expectation as they could diminish trust of future public health pronouncements.