Edouard Harris

42 karmaJoined Nov 2022


Isn't this trivially exploitable? If a market like this existed, then surely my first move as a corrupt billionaire would be to place rolling bets on my own innocence. Seems like I should be able to manipulate the estimate by risking only a small fraction of my charitable allocation  in most realistic cases. Especially since the lower the market probability looks, the less likely anyone is to actually investigate me carefully.