All of Eli Kaufman's Comments + Replies

Thank you for writing this article Patrick.

As someone with a similar-ish background of discovering EA in mid-career, many of the things you mentioned resonate with my experience. I might write a post about my own experience.

Interesting! Minor comment: there's a missing y in the header "Why Bean Soaking ma be tractable".

Since I'm not familiar with the water situation in Uganda, wanted to check if you have considered what would be the impact of using more water to soak the beans? Would families have to spend more time/money to obtain more clean water?

And a potential information campaign could take place in the markets where people buy their beans.

2
NickLaing
9mo
Thanks Eli nice one. I think having to use an extra litre of water would have minimal - especially because I would guess at least half of that litre would be saved at the other end of the process, with less cooking time messaging Jess e cc aporation time. Even buying water a a 20 litre Jerry can costs about 200 shillings, of which a litre would cost 10 shillings (.3 us cents) which is almost negligible even in Uganda.

The bit about the vaccine sitting on the shelf for 20 years makes me think: what other potential treatments are available but not researched/deployed due to lack of commercial incentive? I wonder if there's a systematic research to identify the most promising interventions in this category.

3
NickLaing
10mo
That's a great comment Eli - I'm not sure there is! Probably the most shocking story of shelved innovations (not much talked about) is the discovery of the best malaria treatment we have in 1972, which took over 25 years to become the treatment of choice. A combination of China hiding the discovery and western mistrust, how many lives could have been saved if it had come into use 20 years earlier?  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4966551/

I think it was too unstable but it paved the way for military uses of stable explosives.

Here's my stab at it: Long before the internet, this folk wisdom encapsulates the notion that: A. It's not enough to have an intention without acting on it and/or B. It's often hard to predict the long-term implications of an action. Famous examples: the inventor of the plastic bag was trying to solve the problem of waste from paper bags; Alfred Nobel's dynamite was created as a safe way to blast rocks.

1
timunderwood
1y
Was dynamite ever actually used as a weapon rather than a blasting tool?

Nice story, thanks for sharing! It's important to have all kinds of views to stop this forum from becoming an echo chamber.

Great summary of FIRE. My journey involved discovering FIRE a decade prior to discovering EA, which I feel equipped me with tools useful for EA mindset:

  • not trying to be a maximalist e.g. it's ok to go on holiday while pursuing bigger goals
  • not to get into analysis paralysis e.g. rather than trying to find the very best passive fund or constructing my own portfolio which needs to be rebalanced, go for Vanguard's fund so I don't have to worry about this.
  • making career decisions based a way of life different to mainstream.

Had an idea, don't know if it was previously explored: The amounts currently donated throughout EA are miniscule in comparison to traditional philanthropy. Wouldn't it be effective trying to reach established philanthropic foundations and convince them to look at impact? With the right connections, even getting one or two foundations become more impact-oriented could be massive.

Interesting approach, trying to synthesize Financial Independence with effective giving! (are there others in the forum pursuing FI?) While I don't have a direct solution to the PDF questions, wanted to mention an initiative that could be relevant - a way to get your savings do good: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FMgvYitqeikgTxpcw/global-income-coin-a-ubi-generating-currency

1
Tyner
1y
This was another discussion of EA/FIRE https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/j2ccaxmHcjiwGDs9T/ea-vs-fire-reconciling-these-two-movements

“Family and Computer Sciences” sounded peculiar. Clicking the link revealed it was “Family and Consumer Sciences.”

1
ColdButtonIssues
2y
thank you!

Thank you for this fascinating insight into the world of literary translation.

Will a period of 90 days to 1 year be sufficient for getting enough understanding about the religion in question? Many religions claim that one has to spend many years to become knowledgeable.

1
Kbrown
2y
Your point is fair. I think the time that people could commit to a controlled experiment would be a limiting factor. I think it would be interesting if people used the post as a jumping off point to do informal experimentation, and they could take the time they thought it would require. This would not necessarily yield the same precision that a randomized trial would, but as per your point, there may be a tradeoff between external validity (taking the time to really practice the faith) and internal validity (limits on time commitment in the context of a randomized trial to gain causal inference).

Thanks for the detailed response along with nice images!

Couple of questions :

  1. You frame this as an idea to improve humanity's ability to make sensible decisions in big groups. But how does posting photos contribute to decision making in a group situation? Feels like a leap between the problem statement and the proposed solution.

  2. The mechanism you proposed would require an app capable of dealing with sharing and storing photos and data in a secure way. Did you have a specific solution in mind? Otherwise building such an app from scratch seems like a big technical effort.

1
Roman Kozhevnikov
2y
1. First question I've already mentioned "mutual understanding between humans", and this is what I see as an intermediate step between stated problem and the proposed solution, but I may have underestimated inferential distances, so I'll try to be more clear. I'm going to break down my answer into two parts: in the first part I'll go into more detail about how the solution I proposed would help increase mutual understanding, and in the second I'll explain how it all relates to decision making. 1.1. Mutural understanding Due to the specifics of curiosity, the media field around me is filled with extremes. Therefore, when I try to imagine the society around me and my place in it, the availability heuristic throws up examples of abnormality for me, because of which my idea of "others" is formed with a distortion. I believe that this effect affects everyone. I assume that if we fill social networks with more representative content, then this will normalize a person's idea of the rest of society and their place in it. And photos are a good way to form a figurative, emotional perception, unlike the dry statistics. 1.2. Decision making I have an idea about how to improve humanity's ability to make sensible decisions in big groups (and I will definitely describe it in a separate post). But discussions will take a long time until a common opinion is formed, and this task may take precious years to complete. At the same time, I consider it very likely that the implementation of the final decision will in any case involve the need to increase mutual understanding among individuals in the first stage. Thus, despite the still open questions of the subsequent stages, it is worth starting the first step now. So, perhaps, I really made a mistake with such a statement, and it should be rephrased like this: "I'm in urge to share with you an idea of the first step in the way to improve humanity's ability to make sensible decisions in big groups". If we know what the very fir

Thanks Ben, good idea.

  1. Am I right in thinking that if this takes off you take yourself out of the booking loop eventually? People can then do it directly by including a calendly link for example.
  2. I'd like to be added with the following description:

Eli Kaufman

Independent consultant with background in operations. Helping organizations be effective by making the most of their systems. LinkedIn

Ask about:

  • Bounce ideas about improvements/solutions to operational processes
  • If you're considering setting up / joining / using the expertise of an agency providing service
... (read more)
2
Clifford
2y
Awesome, thanks Eli. 1. Yeah something like this! 2. Great, thanks. I've added you to the google form but I think it will work better if other people who comment add their calendly so that people don't have to go through me.

Here are a few typical use cases:

  • a process whereby a few team members have to collaborate (for example reviewing forms submitted via a webpage with one person doing the initial screening, selecting a subset of the forms for a second person to review and sending response to the form submitter). While this can be done using a spreadsheet and email, it does not scale well and has a lot of friction without a proper system. Building an end-to-end solution with notifications and automation allows scaling it up massively without increasing overheads.

  • creatin

... (read more)

True, independent advice can save time and costs.

Thanks for writing this useful advice, much appreciated!

Following the topic with interest, as someone coming to the EA-world mid-career with background in operations and looking to apply my skills in an EA org. I saw the 80,000 hours article with the 2020 update and was somewhat disappointed but realize that there are a lot of orgs out there with various needs and expectations.

Fascinating ideas!

#7 should say 'prizes' instead of 'prices'.