These tips felt relevant to my chats with teammates at Electronic Arts who participate in social impact.

A couple of highlights resonated with me:

Community & discussion oriented activities are probably high ROI

Employees tended to be more skeptical about longtermism compared to the average EA

The example of rabies inspired a search for leading causes of death in the 1800s. Here's one article that sounded plausible for 1850 and 1900: https://nonprofitupdate.info/2010/10/21/10-leading-causes-of-death-in-1850-and-2000-2/

Another plausible stat from the United States from 1900 follows:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/235703/major-causes-of-death-in-the-us/

Prevention of a frequent cause of death from 1900 (such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, and diarrhea) sounds like a plausible clue to identifying an intervention that benefited many humans by 2020. One example that comes to mind from GiveWell's recent grant to Dispensers for Safe Water is water chlorination.

https://blog.givewell.org/2022/04/06/water-quality-overview/ 

 Wikipedia claimed chlorination spread in the United States in the early 1900s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_chlorination 

Aogara,

What a perfect reply! This thoughtful estimate of Against Malaria Foundation expected benefit thoroughly informed me. The similar expectations from Malaria Consortium, New Incentives, Helen Keller International, and GiveWell's Maximum Impact Fund have sound evidence to extend the healthy life of an infant, on average, by about one day for one dollar.

Mark, you're right, I had no intention if prolonging a miserable life. I intended to ask about extending an infant's healthy and pleasant life by one day.

Sjlver, you cited the article titled "Health and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Zambia." If I'm reading well, the randomized controlled trial measured about 10% to 15% increase in income during the next year for a population with free bednets.

That is a perfect example of the kinds of facts that I have been searching for. I welcome any more evidence.

Now I cited that exemplary article. In a spreadsheet cell.

Also, in the past few days I revised some estimates and sources of facts.

I ignorantly estimated of 3% to 5% compounding opportunity cost in annual productivity from malaria alone. This is based on a comment from Rob Mathers at a World Malaria Day presentation about the total economic opportunity cost of malaria per year divided by the income of an estimated population at risk of malaria. It is a crude estimate.

Phil's discussion had inspired the historical scenario of donating to AMF in 2010 or 2020. As can be seen in the crude estimates so far, I am currently uncertain. Therefore, I agree with you, Sjlver, that with such high uncertainty it seems to be a deadly gamble to delay a gift by 10 years.

Again anyone's comments on facts from 2010 to 2020 would inform an estimate of this historical scenario. If I can understand a simple historical scenario, then it would inform my giving plans for the future.