Effective Altruism Forum
Giving season 2023
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Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
What is the probability that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next MONTH?
Aggregate probability: 0.0859 (8.6%)
All probabilities: 0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07
Sorry if it sounds rude but If one person gives 0.001 and the other gives 0.27 shouldn't it mean that at least one of the two is not good at forecasting?