You're right, the leverage definitely goes two ways. The thing it, this later leverage will tend to be smaller than the one you get immediately. At least, this is how the system behaves in my naive simulations. The exception is, when you expect some very big contributors to join later on - then the later leverage is bigger. So yeah, it's a complicated situation and I didn't want to go into that in the post, because it would get too bloated.
And yeah, humans and TAI may have different strategies which complicates it further. This is why I'm not yet fully satisfied with this mechanism, and I will try to simplify it, so that we don't have to care for all those strategies.
Yeah, I agree that using this to further fund AI alignment wouldn't help much. I'm less sure about "hitting the metric" - the thing is, we don't have any good alignment metric right now. But if we somehow managed to build it, convincing AI labs to hit such a metric seems to me like the most feasible thing to make AI race safer. But yeah, building it would be really hard.
Do you maybe have some other ideas how to make AI race safer? Maybe it is possible to somehow turn them into a continuous value that they could coordinate to increase?
Re: strategic thinking - It may be true that most people won't care so much for their real leverage (they won't consider the counterfactual where they donate less), but it definitely isn't rational. So while it may more or less work, I wouldn't like this system to give an impression that it tricks people into donating.
And, more importantly, my main hope for this system, is to facilitate cooperation between most powerful agents (powerful states, future supercorporations, TAI systems), rather than individual people. I assume such powerful actors will consider what happens if they do not donate, and selfishly do what's optimal for them.
I'd love to see the idea tested in a real world situation. I'd be happy to help with building this system if you want :)
OK, I underestimated them. Thanks for clarifying!
What they do is certainly impressive.
Thanks for the recommendations! Of the two, OVD-Info looks particularly promising. While Meduza seems partially redundant (correct me if I'm wrong), because all the information is already available from other sources, OVD-Info really seems to make anti-regime actions easier.
You convinced me to donate :)
Yes! That's exactly my thoughts. In addition, if Putin faces high resistance, it will show other regimes that such actions will not be tolerated.
Can you tell more about what those trusted sources say about Blue/Yellow? I'm considering making a significant donation but I won't do it blindly. How exactly can they be more effective than Ukrainian army?
I'm particularly interested in affecting the outcome and aftermath of this war (long-term effects), rather than short-term humanitarian help.