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Fermi estimation of the impact you might have working on AI safety

I made the text a bit more clear. As for the bug, it didn't affect the end result of the Fermi estimation but how I computed the intermediate "probability of doom" was wrong: I forgot to take into account situations where AGI safety ended up being impossible... It is fixed now.

Thank you for the feedback!

Fermi estimation of the impact you might have working on AI safety

At first, I thought this would be distracting, as there are many orders of magnitudes between the lowest "lives saved if you avoid extinction" estimations and the higher ones. But given that you're not the first to ask for that, I think it would be a good idea to add this feature! I will probably add that soon.

Fermi estimation of the impact you might have working on AI safety

How would you model these effects? I have two ideas :

  1. add a section with how much you speed up AGI (but I'm not sure how I could break this down further)
  2. add a section with how likely it would be for you to take on resources away from other actions that could be used to save the world (either through better AI safety, or something else)

Is one of them what you had in mind? Do you have other ideas?