jacobpfau

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Yes, I recently asked a metaculus mod about this, and they said they're hoping to bring back the ai.metaculus sub-domain eventually. For now, I'm submitting everything to the metaculus main domain.

jacobpfau's Shortform

Medium term AI forecasting with Metaculus

I'm working on a collection of metaculus.com questions intended to generate AI domain specific forecasting insights. These questions are intended to resolve in the 1-15 year range, and my hope is that if they're sufficiently independent, we'll get a range of positive and negative resolutions which will inform future forecasts.

I've already gotten a couple of them live, and am hoping for feedback on the rest:

1. When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

2. When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?

3. (Not by me) When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?

4. (WIP) When will reinforcement learning methods achieve sample efficiency within four orders of magnitude of human efficiency?*

5. (WIP) When will unsupervised learning methods achieve human level performance on image classification?

The more questions the better, so please make suggestions. Of course we have to avoid burdening the good folks working at metaculus, so 8-10 questions is probably the maximum I'd be willing to personally submit.

*I am not very familiar with reinforcement learning, so input here would be particularly helpful! What is the best way to operationalize this question? How many orders of magnitude? Is there a relevant benchmark? etc. I'd be happy for someone else to take the credit, and post the question themselves as well!

Taking advantage of climate change concerns to channel donations to EA-recommended organizations at low marginal cost (proposal and call for more research)

True, it seems like solar-aid's own estimate these days suggests around $5 per tonne. I can't find a more recent external review unfortunately.

Taking advantage of climate change concerns to channel donations to EA-recommended organizations at low marginal cost (proposal and call for more research)

This is a great point!

I'm somewhat hesitant about the CATF recommendation though. After a brief skim of the Founder's Pledge report, looks like they broke down CATF's efforts into three projects which have/are working out well. If we assume that Founder's Pledge reviewed a number of public advocacy/lobbying groups there's likely to have been a multiple testing issue. In that light, the retrospective cost of CO2e/$ estimate may not be predictive of their future CO2e/$ ratio. That said so long as the majority of their funds go into these current efforts, the first concern doesn't apply. A quick ctrl+f didn't pull up anything on their funding gap either.

I personally recommend SolarAid to friends. An old estimate put them at $1.34 per tonne. SolarAid's project may be easier to explain briefly as well?

Whatever you recommend, in my experience, telling non-EA people it only costs 10-30 dollars to offset your carbon for the year has gotten very enthusiastic responses!