Jess Kinchen Smith

32 karmaJoined Oct 2019


Thanks for making this!


A nitpick: the top-left Harvard logo should IMO be a few pixels toward center. 

your face

To clarify- is it face or mucous membranes? I've seen 'face' everywhere, and I can't really understand how touching my forehead would infect. Thanks!

3. This means the virus is going to spread. Both models and reference class forecasting against diseases with similar R0 suggest that a large fraction of the population will be infected before treatments arrive, e.g. Harvard School of Public Health's Marc Lipsitch citing 40-70% of population infected.

Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?

Thanks. I've updated towards your estimate but 1/3 still seems high by my (all too human) intuitions.

P(it goes world scale pandemic) = 1/3, if I believe the exponential spreading math (hard to get my human intuition behind) and the long, symptom less, contagious incubation period

How do you arrive at 1/3 here?

... current marginal cost of saving a human life is around $5k to $10k, and that under mildly optimistic assumptions about the growth of EA style charity, it will rise to $100k in a decade or so.

How did you arrive at the 100k figure?

"Possible Edge Cases in Dietary Effects on Animal Welfare"

When I do consume meat, it's 'humanely raised' (grass-fed etc. etc.) or wild-caught. I think the state of the art on the ethics and evidence around these food sources (vs. plausible substitutes) is muddy, and I want to publish my thoughts so someone can help me see things more clearly.