Jess Kinchen Smith

Jess Kinchen Smith's Comments

COVID-19 brief for friends and family
your face

To clarify- is it face or mucous membranes? I've seen 'face' everywhere, and I can't really understand how touching my forehead would infect. Thanks!

COVID-19 brief for friends and family
3. This means the virus is going to spread. Both models and reference class forecasting against diseases with similar R0 suggest that a large fraction of the population will be infected before treatments arrive, e.g. Harvard School of Public Health's Marc Lipsitch citing 40-70% of population infected.

Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?

Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Thanks. I've updated towards your estimate but 1/3 still seems high by my (all too human) intuitions.

Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak
P(it goes world scale pandemic) = 1/3, if I believe the exponential spreading math (hard to get my human intuition behind) and the long, symptom less, contagious incubation period

How do you arrive at 1/3 here?

The Future of Earning to Give
... current marginal cost of saving a human life is around $5k to $10k, and that under mildly optimistic assumptions about the growth of EA style charity, it will rise to $100k in a decade or so.

How did you arrive at the 100k figure?

What posts you are planning on writing?

"Possible Edge Cases in Dietary Effects on Animal Welfare"

When I do consume meat, it's 'humanely raised' (grass-fed etc. etc.) or wild-caught. I think the state of the art on the ethics and evidence around these food sources (vs. plausible substitutes) is muddy, and I want to publish my thoughts so someone can help me see things more clearly.